Is predicting this storm hard?

[luvwinterwx]

i've been looking at the NWS map & the Chicago area still hasn't put out any snow/winter/ice watches or warnings.. although all around it they have..

is this storm really that hard to predict?

Sue

[Martin]

Sue, you better believe it. Its the battle of the air masses. Instead of cold air damming which is typical with freezing rain events..This time its a very transitional pattern which small areas of High and Low pressure systems migrating about and battling for position. Trying to time these small systems anywhere from 48 hours out is not an easy task.

Quite a widespread area is being affected with this Wintry Mix. The bulk of the precip should occur tonight and tommorow. And then the cold settles in.

[luvwinterwx]

Thanks Martin..

That's a very good explanation.. It makes more sense to me now...

Sue

[Steve]

Originally Posted by luvwinterwx

i've been looking at the NWS map & the Chicago area still hasn't put out any snow/winter/ice watches or warnings.. although all around it they have..

is this storm really that hard to predict?

Sue

Sue,
I don't know what the NWS in Chicago's problem was, (they also had a winter storm warning for very little snow/ice in southern sections) but some things are better left unsaid. My forecast of snow wasn't that great either although I had almost 5 inches at my house, but I was in the main snow band. The warm air overwhelmed the colder air aloft and many places had ice. Basically I noticed that if it was warmer than -3C at 850 mb, it was not snow. You would think that in the middle of January at night it would not have to be that cold for the precip to be snow.

[milfordmawx]

and the battle goes on in S. NewEngland...look at the Temp Map and tell me there isn't a mess going on!

[Steve]

Originally Posted by milfordmawx

and the battle goes on in S. NewEngland...look at the Temp Map and tell me there isn't a mess going on!

my professional meteorological opinion is it's indeed a mess.