snowfall predictions central u.s.

[murf09]

So does anybody have any predictions regarding the snowfall amounts for the 2006 2007 winter season. Any help is welcome,Thanks.

[Martin]

Originally Posted by murf09

So does anybody have any predictions regarding the snowfall amounts for the 2006 2007 winter season. Any help is welcome,Thanks.

Hmm.. Its a possible El Nino year. Alot of speculation about this right now. Some say yes..some say no.

If so, Expect more rain then snow.

Larry may disagree with me on this.

[Steve]

Originally Posted by Martin

Hmm.. Its a possible El Nino year. Alot of speculation about this right now. Some say yes..some say no.

If so, Expect more rain then snow.

Larry may disagree with me on this.

Depends. If its across the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes, it would be drier then normal. Having said that, El Nino is not the only factor in our weather, only one of the more predictable. If the NAO is in it's negative phase it can still be colder then normal, which is what happened during the last El Nino.

[Martin]

Originally Posted by Steve

Depends. If its across the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes, it would be drier then normal. Having said that, El Nino is not the only factor in our weather, only one of the more predictable. If the NAO is in it's negative phase it can still be colder then normal, which is what happened during the last El Nino.

Ya see.. This is why I dont have the "Meteorologist" tag below my name. :)

Nice insight BTW, Steve.

[Steve]

From CPC on July 31:

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM ABOUT NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS ONE DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOST RECENT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH ALMOST ENTIRELY ABOVE NORMAL, THIS PATTERN IS IN THE POSITIVE HALF OF NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH NOT FAR FROM THE THRESHOLD OF A WEAK EL NINO. NEVERTHELESS, THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THE SST FIELD ON THE EQUATOR, WHICH IS NOT WHAT ONE EXPECTS WITH A SIGNIFICANT EL NINO. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS CONTINUE A SLOW WARMING TREND THAT HAS EXISTED SINCE FEBRUARY IN BOTH SSTS AND THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE PACIFIC BASIN AS A WHOLE.


Their forecasts also do not reflect El Nino, at least as of now.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...off_index.html
The next forecast is issued August 17, so we wills ee if there are indeed and changes.

Let me emphasize that while ENSO is a very important factor in determining our weather it is not the only factor.

[Steve]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...enso_advisory/

[murf09]

so how do you guys think it will be in minnesota, for snowfall amounts? thanks.

[Steve]

Originally Posted by murf09

so how do you guys think it will be in minnesota, for snowfall amounts? thanks.

I for one would think it is too soon to tell. But if it is an el nino year, most likely below normal.

[murf09]

so what has come up on the forcast from today the 17th?

[Steve]

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next one to three months, with a 50% chance that weak El Niño conditions will develop by the end of 2006.

Equatorial surface and subsurface temperature anomalies increased during July 2006, with SST anomalies greater than +0.5C observed in most of the equatorial Pacific between 130ºE and 140ºW (Fig. 1). As a result, positive SST anomalies were observed in all of the Niño regions (Fig. 2). During July, low-level (850-hPa) easterly winds were weaker than average across most of the equatorial Pacific, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was negative for the third consecutive month. Beginning in February the basin-wide upper ocean heat content increased, and since early April positive anomalies have been observed (Fig. 3). Positive upper-ocean heat content anomalies are usually a precursor to warm (El Niño) episodes.

The statistical and coupled model forecasts range from ENSO-neutral to weak warm (El Niño) episode conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into early 2007 (Fig. 4). The forecasts are consistent with the recent build up in upper-ocean heat content along the equator (Fig. 3), indicating a trend toward warm-episode conditions. In the absence of any strong intraseasonal (Madden-Julian Oscillation – MJO) activity, a continued slow trend toward warm-episode conditions is expected. Therefore, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next one to three months, with a 50% chance that weak El Niño conditions will develop by the end of 2006.
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Remember this-it is very important! When going into or out of conditions such as el nino or la nina, the impact is NOT immediate. I think it takes about 2 or 3 months for the atmosphere to adjust. Thus if lets say, elnino condition develop by Dec 1, the impact may not be felt until Feb or March.