snow

[Steve]

First snow of the season for the Dakotas?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...m_p06_084m.gif

[Steve]

and check out the subzero 850 mb temperatures

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...s_p06_192m.gif

[Martin]

That looks like some heavy snow in north dakota. Who said anything about el nino this winter?

[Steve]

The models are basically in universal agreement concerning a storm, probably a significant one, effecting much of the nation next week with good snows for the northern rockies, possibly making it into the northern high plains, and strong convection further south. The NAM is the fastest model with its quick ejection of a short wave, while the others are trending slower with digging energy further south. I never did trust the NAM beyond 48 or 60 hours anyway. Even the woeful NOGAPS is a bit slower. The only thing this time there will not be a western atlantic hurricane slowing things down even further, like the 3 days and 3-4 inches of rain I have had to put up with so far.

[Steve]

Originally Posted by Martin

That looks like some heavy snow in north dakota. Who said anything about el nino this winter?

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2699.htm

[murf09]

how bout minnesota? thanks, murf

[Steve]

Originally Posted by murf09

how bout minnesota? thanks, murf

If the el nino strengthens that you will most likely be in for a winter that will feature snowfall below normal. The southern jet will strengthen and the storm track will be across the southern part of the country. As far as temperatures, at this point it can go either way depending on where the ridge sets up. Probably not what you wanter to hear, but history has shown us that in your area snowfall has been below normal during el nino winters.

[Steve]

Originally Posted by murf09

how bout minnesota? thanks, murf

Looks as if chances are good that if we have an el nino winter, your temperatures will be above normal.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ftstat/mn0.gif