William Gray says another active Hurricane Season

[Martin]

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/0....0ufe6r2g.html

Experts forecast another active Atlantic hurricane season
Apr 04 11:03 AM US/Eastern

Forecasters warned that the upcoming Atlantic cyclonic season would again be highly active, with a total of 17 tropical storms, including nine hurricanes, likely to form. Of those hurricanes, five should be intense, meaning they will reach or exceed Category 3 on the five-level Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale, said leading experts William Gray and Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University.

While the numbers are above the historical average, they remain below last year's record of 26 tropical storms and 14 hurricanes, seven of them intense.
The study said there was a 98 percent chance of a hurricane making landfall in the United States, with an 88 percent likelihood of a Category 1 or 2 striking land and an 81 percent chance of a Category 3, 4 or 5 slamming ashore.
But Gray said it was unlikely the United States would be as hard hit as it has been in the past two years -- each of which saw four major hurricanes slam ashore.

"Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15 to 20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, or the seasons that follow, will have the number of major hurricane US landfalls as we have seen in 2004-2005."
Experts believe the latest record hurricane season was part of a cycle where periods of relative calm alternate with decades of intense activity.

Some scientists also believe global warming plays a crucial role by further increasing the temperature of warm ocean waters that provide fuel to the hurricanes.
But the Colorado State University study played down the theory.
"No credible observational evidence is available or likely will be available in the next few decades which will directly associate global surface temperature change to changes in global frequency and intensity," it said. The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.

[isawitonline]

Yeah, I think we're due for several busy seasons coming up. Just a hunch.

[HurricaneJosh]

Yes, it should be a very interesting season. According to Dr. Gray's forecast, the probabilities of hurricane landfalls in the USA remain very high across the board-- well above normal:

USA: All hurricanes 98%; Cat 3+ 81%
Gulf Coast: All hurricanes 79%; Cat 3+ 47%
FL + E Coast: All hurricanes 89%; Cat 3+ 64%

According to these numbers, they seem to be tending slightly toward more of an East Coast year, in terms of landfalls. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, given that 2005 was an almost pure Gulf Coast year.

Either way, it should be another very active season-- with lots of chase subjects. :)

[isawitonline]

Originally Posted by HurricaneJosh

Yes, it should be a very interesting season. According to Dr. Gray's forecast, the probabilities of hurricane landfalls in the USA remain very high across the board-- well above normal:

USA: All hurricanes 98%; Cat 3+ 81%
Gulf Coast: All hurricanes 79%; Cat 3+ 47%
FL + E Coast: All hurricanes 89%; Cat 3+ 64%

According to these numbers, they seem to be tending slightly toward more of an East Coast year, in terms of landfalls. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, given that 2005 was an almost pure Gulf Coast year.

Either way, it should be another very active season-- with lots of chase subjects. :)

Agreed -- the analogs that were thrown around (which have been mentioned elsewhere) point to a Carolina season such 96 and 99.

[HurricaneJosh]

Originally Posted by isawitonline

Agreed -- the analogs that were thrown around (which have been mentioned elsewhere) point to a Carolina season such 96 and 99.

I've heard people say that. Tom, do you have any opinions yet Re: areas of particular threat? I've also heard some folks mention the E Coast of Florida.

(See? The season hasn't even started and I'm already hounding you for a forecast. :))

[isawitonline]

Originally Posted by HurricaneJosh

I've heard people say that. Tom, do you have any opinions yet Re: areas of particular threat? I've also heard some folks mention the E Coast of Florida.

(See? The season hasn't even started and I'm already hounding you for a forecast. :))

I'm not sure yet actually.

I'm leaning towards Carolinas as being the main threat but even the east coast of Florida would be at risk. It wouldn't take much for a strong hurricane to be shunted back to the west and impact north Florida (such as Dora did in the mid 60's)

Originally Posted by HurricaneJosh

Yes, it should be a very interesting season. According to Dr. Gray's forecast, the probabilities of hurricane landfalls in the USA remain very high across the board-- well above normal:

USA: All hurricanes 98%; Cat 3+ 81%
Gulf Coast: All hurricanes 79%; Cat 3+ 47%
FL + E Coast: All hurricanes 89%; Cat 3+ 64%

According to these numbers, they seem to be tending slightly toward more of an East Coast year, in terms of landfalls. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, given that 2005 was an almost pure Gulf Coast year.

Either way, it should be another very active season-- with lots of chase subjects. :)

I aggree as well. It does look like another destructive season is in gear.