Another El Nino Winter Storm For Florida

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The Florida Daily Weather Discussion #2006-166 has been published at 4:00 pm EST on Saturday December 23, 2006 at http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm .

El Nino winter storm #1 passed through the Florida region during the past 18 hours dropping widespread 1.00-2.00" rains. Here on the south side of Lakeland between Tampa and Orlando I measured 1.07" of rainfall in a 12 hour period, with rumbles of thunder and a maximum wind gust of 23 mph from the south. With a warm and moist deep layered SW moisture feed from the tropical Pacific Ocean, the maximum dewpoint has been as high as 72 deg. and the minimum temperature as high as 67 degrees!
Today even with deep layered moisture still draped across the Florida region and occasional sunshine adding to instability, only isolated to scattered showers have broken out, as we are in a lull between winter storms, with negative vertical velocities (sinking air) occurring. Looking upstream a very strong mid level cutoff low is currently in the vicinity of northern Mexico and south Texas. It will move eastward into the Gulf Of Mexico during the next 12-18 hours and open up into a deep longwave trough. It will spawn a strong extratropical surface low pressure system that will track through the north Florida region.

With a strong extratropical surface low pressure system, a strong mid level longwave trough with an embedded jet maximum in the 140+ knot range, plus a low level jet of approximately 60-70 knots at 850 mb (~5000 feet), a strong fast moving squall line of thunderstorms will sweep across the Gulf Of Mexico and the Florida region during the Sunday Christmas Eve-Monday Christmas Day December 24-25, 2006 period.

With increasing divergence, vorticity, helicity and bidirectional flow (wind shear) some severe weather is possible, with the best chances across the northern part of the state. At the moment it's to early to say how widespread the severe weather will be, it all depends on the exact track and strength of the extratropical surface low pressure system and how much instability occurs. It is still possible that the extratropical surface low pressure system could undergo bombogenesis (rapid and deep strengthening) while in the NE Gulf Of Mexico but it's more likely to occur as it tracks up the east coast.

On Tuesday December 26, 2006 much colder weather will sweep across the region behind the surface cold front. Temperatures will fall from 10-15 deg. above normal before the cold front to 10-15 deg. below normal after the cold front. A light freeze is possible into the inland rural central peninsula on Wednesday-Thursday mornings December 27-28, 2006.

The colder than normal weather will continue into Friday December 29, 2006. This will be followed by yet another possible "classic" El Nino induced winter storm with a widespread heavy to excessive rain event for the Saturday-Sunday December 30-31, 2006 period.