Southern Winter Storm Lurking

[dyndrite]

Ok I will admit we don’t get a lot of winter storms in NC. When we do they are sweat. Just a little history for those folks that don’t think we do.

1979, presidents day storm. High Point NC. I just got out of A school, US Navy, Chanute AFB Rantoul , Ill. It was 60 degrees as I got back to GSO. That is Greensboro NC for the folks at home.

I had wonder lust as you can Imagine. I was not looking at the local forecast but rather the local females, LOL.

By 10 pm the temp was down to 30. By 3 am the temp was down to 10 with snow flurries. I figured I needed to pick up my girl, Janie, and I did.

To make a long story short we got 17 inches of snow with Temps in the 5-7F range the following day. Winds NNW 20-30 MPH, that’s right.

In 1995-1997 I don’t remember when, my friends in Raleigh had a similar experience, so we do get it.

Step one is you folks up North got to go into the deep freeze, sorry.

Stay warm folks.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

OK, here we are I recon you folks are looking to me for the weather. I really do look at all the variables, all the models and such.

The truth there are some great weathermen Like Joe from accu-weather. I know for a fact he did the storms in SE Va. In 1980. Nobody can take that from him. It would be good he come on this forum and Exclaim.

This old observer from Norfolk has grown up. Step up Joe. Tell the people about the storm..

I will leave it there. Maybe someone will call.

Dyndrrite

[dyndrite]

Got to go the wife is here

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Enough about the old days and good storms from the past. The 1980 storm dumped 24 inches of snow in Norfolk Va that year. A January 7 storm dumped 21 inches, What a Year.

This morning looks good with storm over Norfolk in 96 hrs with heavy snow in the mountains of NC and Va. Mid levels have warmed up so rain changing to snow NW piedmont of NC That’s the latest and greatest.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Well I think I found the right size boot to wop this weather computer to make it do right. The 12z run looks like the last that’s two in a row, strike up the band.

Low getting a little deeper and further north trajectory with heavy wet snow in the tri-state area of the NE. The mid levels have warmed up a little. Current profiles are about 3-5 degrees too warm for snow in Central NC. Looks like 35-36 degree dew points with 37-40 degree temps GSO/RDU. It will either get colder or warmer still.

Impressive precip rates in Eastern Va, may overcome warm nose with heavy wet snow on the back side. The mountains of NC and Va. Look good for 2-4 inch snow fall.

The cold air should be at Steve’s house next week. Long range models are hinting at a major overriding event next week.

Dyndrite

[spanky]

Do you think upstate SC is out of the woods for winter precp from this storm?

[dyndrite]

Originally Posted by spanky

Do you think upstate SC is out of the woods for winter precp from this storm?

Not yet. It does seem unlikely but you never know. 96 hrs is a long ways off, lot can change.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Well latest trend is warmer to that tune of 2-4 degrees. Now I have seen that the latest NAM is cooler with snow flurries Sunday night in nw NC as system heads to the Jersey shore. As a major event this is starting to look like a cold rain in the south.

I don’t put a lot of faith in thermal profiles this far out but trends are important. Surface temp forecast are tuff in the western Carolinas. For example the 12z run this morning the temp forecast for 6 and 12 hours were off by 3-8 degrees. It was a lot colder. Forecast high was 51 at 18z. Temp was and is 42.8

Throw another log on the fire next chance of winter weather is next Thursday. Stormy and cold times ahead. I think Steve said that.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date

Last too runs are coming into agreement on a low forming off the coast off NC and heading out to sea. The low pressure trof extending out of the great lakes in response to the ridging down the eastern seaboard is still the wild card.

As far as a major winter storm the likelihood is less than 48 hrs ago and on a scale of 1-10 is about a 1.5. A NW flow could still bring significant snow to the mountains of NC, Va and WVa. The 850 Mb trof is baggy and a storm could still pop up.

The piedmont of the Carolinas and Va. May just see some clouds and cool conditions. The mid and upper levels have cooled drastically from +3 to 0c at 850 Mb Sunday afternoon. The lower levels have warmed due to thinner cloud cover in the East and lack of precipitation.

The cold air still needs to pass to the SE and should inter the high plains late Monday and Tuesday. Next Chance of winter weather should be Thursday.

So the Storm that was Lurking is still hiding in the variables. We will know more as we see how the front progresses off the SE coast today.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date

Latest guidance looks like there will be a series of Storms to effect the east coast and southeast over the next 10 days. Sense they are all associated with the same trof and associated cold air advection. I will keep this, “Lurking Storm,” thread going till danger passes. As we say, “it is a timing issue.”

Looks like three waves will move through. The first Sunday and Monday. The second Thursday and the third the following Saturday. I believe what the computer is doing is progressing the cold air east as it should. If one of these waves blow-up, then the process could move faster and everything would change.

Latest guidance on the first system is still all over the place. They are agreeing on a weaker southern storm but still diverge on the exit path of the now, Hatteras Low. Great Lakes trof as I will call it looks like it will keep clouds and snow in the upper Mississippi Valley and NC, Va. Mountains until the Artic surge inters the northern US and clears it out on Tuesday and Wednesday. This is when the second stronger system forms in the western gulf, “as of today.” This system looks a lot stronger and I hate to use the, “I,” word but potential Ice Storm event in western Carolinas on Thursday.

Old weatherman rule 12-111- When weather acts strange, strange things will happen.

With Cold air building to the north and waves moving along an active southern storm track things will be interesting for sure.


Dyndrite