Southern Winter Storm Lurking

dyndrite · 01-11-2008, 11:57 AM

I do get blinders on from time to time so post a question if you live anywhere and want a local forecast. Weather is a little funny in the fact that every region of the country has its quirks. I don’t think I could forecast the weather in Wisconsin better than Steve and I doubt there is anyone in the US that can forecast better than me in the Mid Atlantic

That being said, This cold air intrusion will effect a lot of people. The Thursday storm could effect people in N Ga. With Ice. I have learned I have a South Carolina Audience and when I say Western Carolinas I mean North and South. If I can omit an area I will try and remember to do that.

Before this system moves out a lot of people in the south could be affected from Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas.

A potential Winter Storm could affect these areas over the next 10 days.

Dyndrite

spanky · 01-11-2008, 12:10 PM

On the 2nd system with artic front coming in before the storm why would Ice be the main threat than snow.

Thanks,
Mark
NW SC

dyndrite · 01-11-2008, 12:26 PM

Great question,

The strength of the storm will push warm air north in the mid levels. This is called a warm nose on the Skew-T log P diagram. That is info from the weather balloons.

Upper-Air page: RAP Real-Time Weather

That is a Link you can see the data gathered from the weather balloons. They send one up at 7am and 7pm for the 00Z and 12Z run. In the western Carolinas we get the cold air wedge at the surface like yesterday. Cold air damning it is called, CAD for short. Temps in the 40’s in the western Carolinas and temps in the 70’s in the eastern part of the state.

I hate it to brother, Ice stinks. But if you live where we do, it is life. If the second storm is weaker or forms further east then it may help us.

The cold Air should be stronger in the third system.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 01-11-2008, 02:53 PM

Up-date

Looks like the first impulse will produce Moderate snow early Sunday Morning In the New York City area and High country Of New Jersey. Southern NE Late Sunday into Monday. This is the NAM.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 01-11-2008, 03:00 PM

Up-date

First wave moves up the Main coast as 0C 850 MB Isotherm moves south to central Georgia.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 01-11-2008, 03:49 PM

To be honest I should say as 850 MB vorticity max digs south as High pressure builds over central Canada. I love this crap

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 01-11-2008, 04:30 PM

GFS is in agreement with first wave. Rain snow mix in western NC Temps around 40 and southern Va, Clouds and colder in upstate SC Late Sunday temps in upstate SC, 50 and falling.

Temps falling to low 40’s in upstate SC Monday afternoon. Hard freeze as Artic surge moves into Montana.

Late Tuesday winds NW 30 to 40 MPH gust to 70 North and South Dakota as Artic surge moves SE.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 01-11-2008, 04:55 PM

Latest third wave info 18Z depicts Snow in Northern Alabama and Mississippi and Georgia, Including Atlanta. Western NC next Saturday. Things could change stay tuned.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 01-11-2008, 06:15 PM

Up-date

18Z Depicts Major Storm off Hattaras Late Saturday With Heavy Snow western NC and upstate SC. Northern Ga including Atlanta.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 01-11-2008, 06:18 PM

That would be next Saturday not this Saturday. I tend to spend my time a little in the future.

Dyndrite

01-11-2008, 12:10 PM	#22
spanky Junior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Boiling Springs SC (upstate) Age: 46 Posts: 49	Southern Storm lurking On the 2nd system with artic front coming in before the storm why would Ice be the main threat than snow. Thanks, Mark NW SC

01-11-2008, 12:26 PM	#23
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Great question, The strength of the storm will push warm air north in the mid levels. This is called a warm nose on the Skew-T log P diagram. That is info from the weather balloons. Upper-Air page: RAP Real-Time Weather That is a Link you can see the data gathered from the weather balloons. They send one up at 7am and 7pm for the 00Z and 12Z run. In the western Carolinas we get the cold air wedge at the surface like yesterday. Cold air damning it is called, CAD for short. Temps in the 40’s in the western Carolinas and temps in the 70’s in the eastern part of the state. I hate it to brother, Ice stinks. But if you live where we do, it is life. If the second storm is weaker or forms further east then it may help us. The cold Air should be stronger in the third system. Dyndrite Last edited by dyndrite; 01-11-2008 at 12:29 PM.

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01-11-2008, 11:57 AM	#21
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	I do get blinders on from time to time so post a question if you live anywhere and want a local forecast. Weather is a little funny in the fact that every region of the country has its quirks. I don’t think I could forecast the weather in Wisconsin better than Steve and I doubt there is anyone in the US that can forecast better than me in the Mid Atlantic That being said, This cold air intrusion will effect a lot of people. The Thursday storm could effect people in N Ga. With Ice. I have learned I have a South Carolina Audience and when I say Western Carolinas I mean North and South. If I can omit an area I will try and remember to do that. Before this system moves out a lot of people in the south could be affected from Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. A potential Winter Storm could affect these areas over the next 10 days. Dyndrite

01-11-2008, 02:53 PM	#24
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Up-date Looks like the first impulse will produce Moderate snow early Sunday Morning In the New York City area and High country Of New Jersey. Southern NE Late Sunday into Monday. This is the NAM. Dyndrite

01-11-2008, 03:00 PM	#25
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Up-date First wave moves up the Main coast as 0C 850 MB Isotherm moves south to central Georgia. Dyndrite

01-11-2008, 03:49 PM	#26
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	To be honest I should say as 850 MB vorticity max digs south as High pressure builds over central Canada. I love this crap Dyndrite

01-11-2008, 04:30 PM	#27
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	GFS is in agreement with first wave. Rain snow mix in western NC Temps around 40 and southern Va, Clouds and colder in upstate SC Late Sunday temps in upstate SC, 50 and falling. Temps falling to low 40’s in upstate SC Monday afternoon. Hard freeze as Artic surge moves into Montana. Late Tuesday winds NW 30 to 40 MPH gust to 70 North and South Dakota as Artic surge moves SE. Dyndrite

01-11-2008, 04:55 PM	#28
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Latest third wave info 18Z depicts Snow in Northern Alabama and Mississippi and Georgia, Including Atlanta. Western NC next Saturday. Things could change stay tuned. Dyndrite

01-11-2008, 06:15 PM	#29
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Up-date 18Z Depicts Major Storm off Hattaras Late Saturday With Heavy Snow western NC and upstate SC. Northern Ga including Atlanta. Dyndrite

01-11-2008, 06:18 PM	#30
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	That would be next Saturday not this Saturday. I tend to spend my time a little in the future. Dyndrite

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