Southern Winter Storm Lurking

[dyndrite]

Warm air gets pushed south this week. Major cool down in the mid levels setting up supper lapse rate South East and Mid Atlantic.

I have been watching this for 3 days. Looks like Winter Storm Snow, not Ice. Expect daily up-dates. Major Cold Air out break Eastern US after Storm.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Time frame this weekend

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

00Z Run still has storm forming in gulf of Mexico 120hrs moving NE to just off Cape Hatteras 156hrs. Snow possible Northern Ga., Upstate South Carolina, Central and Western North Carolina and Va.

No way to tell how strong the storm will be and who will get what at this time.

After Storm Major Artic intrusion Central and Eastern US.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date

I will try and give a detailed event forecast and explanation for the upcoming East Coast Storm.

Today the first impulses rides over the ridge of the South East Coast. This will bring the mid level temperatures back in line and send the warm air back to the Gulf coast states. Severe weather and Tornados are still a possibility with this system. Yesterday tornadoes were reported in Wisconsin for the first time in 126 years. That is the dynamics we have in place. Good luck to all the folks in the path of this deadly menace.

What is interesting about this first impulse is it will generate a major snowfall in southern Canada with up to 15 inches of new snow. This new snow will allow for a stronger area of high pressure to develop This storm will set up the mid level temperature profiles and surface cold air for the third storm developing in the gulf late Friday and Saturday.

Getting back to the Thursday and Friday impulse. The first impulse will allow for a local area of modified high pressure to form and send a cold air dam,(CAD). Down the east side of the Appalachians. Temps will fall from the low 70’s Wednesday to the mid 40’s on Friday. Snow will develop in Ill., Indiana, Rain changing to snow showers N Ohio, west Pa, New York state. To the tune of 1-3 inches and will extend the snow pack back to southern Pa. by Sat Morning.

This is were the models diverge a little. The NAM is holding back a trof over the great lakes region in response to residual moist cold air, seems logical unless second wave deepens. This is setting the surface low up in the North West gulf and southern Texas.

The GFS is making the trof the main surface low and warming temperature profiles over New England. It is also Developing Gulf low and moving it out to sea and taking away moving the bulk of the precipitation off shore. A surface trof extends North west from the main low to Ohio with light snow depicted in this area in association with 850 mb short wave.. Bad news for snow lovers. The old split energy profile. This is the second time in 4 days it has done this.

Bottom line. There are too many variables for the computer to keep up with. Thermal profiles and are all over the place with no consistency. Storm will form in the gulf I believe as normal progression of main mid level trof. Stay tuned.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

The last runs Storm depiction with a great lakes crawler with no low or mid level warm air advection seems unreal with a 3 day transverse so we throw that run out. I bet you folks wondered how it was done.

Just looked at the long range on that last run and a pattern change looks for sure. As the run catches up meaning no other problems, just the US East Coast. Gulf of Alaska low is going to dissipate and ridge will build to 300 Mb out west. Cold air will flow into the Eastern two thirds of the US. Storm track moves south and the SE should get active. Several clippers and great lake moisture should keep the Northern states cold and white..

No major warm ups in site after the next cool down. Let the good time begin. Who needs tornados, let it snow.

Dyndrite

[tayfromnc]

Yeah, I'm reporting from Raleigh, NC and our local tv weatherman, who is a long time resident of the area reported last night that next Sunday/Monday would be interesting here in the piedmont of North Carolina at least according to the Global Models. Me and my boss were talking about it this morning as we are both avid weather buffs. Does deserve some watching.

[dyndrite]

Something to look at and then it makes you want to pull your hair out. There are not a lot of old weathermen in the great state of North Carolina, most of them end up mumbling to themselves in a dark corner by the time they turn 40.

The latest 18z run looked just like the 12z run that I threw out. I shell throw this one out as well because I have never seen a Lake Erie Low. Sort of a micro-scale blocking pattern that is broadening the 850 Mb trof to the point that if you go by gradient alone the winds should be calm. This broad trof extends all the way to 500 Mb and sends our storm 200 miles out to sea.

I will keep throwing them out till they make sense, or until such a time that it is determined that I am not making sense.


Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

What a mess the models are going for the trifecto, they have almost caught up. We should know the truth in 24-48hrs.

The last run was the coldest I have ever seen. Start chopping wood folks.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Well I be danged, now that run was more better. I think I have seen weather maps that looked like that. I always like for things to have happened before I believe some of these computer solutions. A couple of days ago it was putting down a lot of snow in Florida, I didn’t buy it.

The last run is coming in line with our storm back to just off Hatteras with Snow in Raleigh. Flurries in the dry slot in western NC and light snow in the mountains. At 84 Hrs the GFS has the front 100 miles off shore, the NAM has it about 25 miles off shore. This seems like a movie I have seen before, Storm could move up the coast if the trof deepens a little and I don’t see a reason why it would not. The current run is the best case scenario for eastern NC to get snow.

Update later today.



Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

12Z up-date.

This run with the Upper air support is bringing the storm just off Hatteras with a clipper on its heels. This makes sense to me, just give me a little 500 Mb support, maybe a vortmax. The main change is the High pressure area in Eastern Canada is becoming the major air mass. that’s ok with me after two new snow falls and the stagnate air.

It still wants to hang up the area of low pressure over the great Lakes, this in response to the warmer lake water in relation to the cold air. This makes sense to me

The question remains as to the warm gulf stream that we have no clue as to the true thermal profile and convective energy.

The New long term data is consistent with My Winter forecast. Just a second, Insert image of dyndrite beating his chest and saying yea, man.

Going to get cold man, real cold.

I love this crap. Stay tuned.

Dyndrite