Official Storm Thread, 01-13

dyndrite · 01-13-2008, 07:12 AM

Heavy snow warnings are up for the Tri-State area and Eastern New England as the Low pressure schedule to form this morning off the South East Coast is trying not to disappoint.

12Z data is misbehaving as you might expect. High pressure has build down the Eastern Seaboard and pressures are starting to fall off the coast of South Carolina. Precipitation is just now forming near Charleston about 3 hours behind schedule.

Impressive area of moisture in Tennessee extending north to the Great Lakes storm at or about Steve’s House.

Interesting to watch this all come together. Snow threat in The MidAtlantic would be the mountains of NC and Va. Extreme Northern Va, Some sections of NE Va. Could get a snow burst as the storm moves out. Cold light rain and Drizzle for the Piedmont of the Carolinas this go around.

Gail warnings are up from just north of Cape Hatteras north to New England. NE winds 25-35 kts gust to 45kts later today.

This is a complex system and things can and will change. The low pressure area over the great Lakes could keep things interesting for a long time as it moves SE behind the storm with lots of cold air aloft.

Put on a pot of coffee Lucile, the show is about to start.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 01-13-2008, 08:22 AM

Just looking at the 12Z NAM and 12Z RUC they cant even agree on the analysis. The 12Z sounding at GSO is -1 at 850Mb with warm nose above, the NAM chose to ignore it. Neither model has handled the wave in the NE gulf of Mexico The phantom wave that was depicted on the GFS model all those days is back.

Lots of convection over the gulf stream as winds are starting to get gusty on the coast of NC. Greatest pressure falls in this area. I can see a mid level circulation over east Tennessee as cold air aloft moves SE out of the upper Midwest. Snow at the surface in Indiana and aloft in central Tennessee.

Lot of Nervous Meteorologist in NYC this morning.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 01-13-2008, 01:43 PM

Up-date

Low pressure is off Hatteras at 19Z. Max heating is over. Precip in The western Carolinas was a bust. Next 6-10 hours should tell the tell.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 01-13-2008, 05:06 PM

There was a song called, “Living on the edge.” Good luck with this storm guys, Lots of warm air and narrow margin of error on those models.

I would never have the guts to blow a foot of snow forecast. That’s why they get the big bucks.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 01-14-2008, 04:51 AM

Ouch, that had to hurt, better luck next time guys. There are a lot of weathermen in the Tri-state area calling in sick this morning. I guess this shows no matter how many heads you got or how educated you are forecasting can be humbling, yikes.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 01-14-2008, 12:54 PM

Old weatherman rule 1-011, when forecasting snow, look at thermometer.

Dyndrite

01-13-2008, 07:12 AM	#1
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Official Storm Thread, 01-13 Heavy snow warnings are up for the Tri-State area and Eastern New England as the Low pressure schedule to form this morning off the South East Coast is trying not to disappoint. 12Z data is misbehaving as you might expect. High pressure has build down the Eastern Seaboard and pressures are starting to fall off the coast of South Carolina. Precipitation is just now forming near Charleston about 3 hours behind schedule. Impressive area of moisture in Tennessee extending north to the Great Lakes storm at or about Steve’s House. Interesting to watch this all come together. Snow threat in The MidAtlantic would be the mountains of NC and Va. Extreme Northern Va, Some sections of NE Va. Could get a snow burst as the storm moves out. Cold light rain and Drizzle for the Piedmont of the Carolinas this go around. Gail warnings are up from just north of Cape Hatteras north to New England. NE winds 25-35 kts gust to 45kts later today. This is a complex system and things can and will change. The low pressure area over the great Lakes could keep things interesting for a long time as it moves SE behind the storm with lots of cold air aloft. Put on a pot of coffee Lucile, the show is about to start. Dyndrite

01-14-2008, 04:51 AM	#5
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Ouch, that had to hurt, better luck next time guys. There are a lot of weathermen in the Tri-state area calling in sick this morning. I guess this shows no matter how many heads you got or how educated you are forecasting can be humbling, yikes. Dyndrite Last edited by dyndrite; 01-14-2008 at 11:01 AM.

01-14-2008, 12:54 PM	#6
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Old weatherman rule 1-011, when forecasting snow, look at thermometer. Dyndrite Last edited by dyndrite; 01-14-2008 at 01:14 PM.

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01-13-2008, 08:22 AM	#2
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Just looking at the 12Z NAM and 12Z RUC they cant even agree on the analysis. The 12Z sounding at GSO is -1 at 850Mb with warm nose above, the NAM chose to ignore it. Neither model has handled the wave in the NE gulf of Mexico The phantom wave that was depicted on the GFS model all those days is back. Lots of convection over the gulf stream as winds are starting to get gusty on the coast of NC. Greatest pressure falls in this area. I can see a mid level circulation over east Tennessee as cold air aloft moves SE out of the upper Midwest. Snow at the surface in Indiana and aloft in central Tennessee. Lot of Nervous Meteorologist in NYC this morning. Dyndrite

01-13-2008, 01:43 PM	#3
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Up-date Low pressure is off Hatteras at 19Z. Max heating is over. Precip in The western Carolinas was a bust. Next 6-10 hours should tell the tell. Dyndrite

01-13-2008, 05:06 PM	#4
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	There was a song called, “Living on the edge.” Good luck with this storm guys, Lots of warm air and narrow margin of error on those models. I would never have the guts to blow a foot of snow forecast. That’s why they get the big bucks. Dyndrite

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