Southern Storm 1 of 2008

[dyndrite]

You will be OK during the day.

[traci1972]

Well it was after work i dont get home until 5:30-6:30 so it would be evening time.

[dyndrite]

Morning up-date

Classic Gulf of Mexico Low 100 miles SSE of Galveston TX. Clouds increasing rapidly into Georgia. Sunshine will fade fast with limited heating. Dew points in the single digits to mid teens NE Georgia, upstate SC and Western NC. Current conditions 15 miles WSW of GSO, 250 thin overcast, winds NE 10, temp 19F.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

12z data was colder in the mid levels and about 1 degree colder in the lower levels. Expect downward trend to continue in the Ice Storm areas.

Unfortunately this is a hybrid system and believe it or not parts of NE Georgia and upstate South Carolina could bare the brunt of the Ice. The reason I say this is more precip will reach the ground in this area. Western North Carolina is in line for the precip to be lighter and more snow and sleet. The western part of North Carolina will be the dry air source for these regions in the initial phase of this storm. By noon tomorrow the damage will have been done in these areas.

Dyndrites Forecast

Look for a mix of sleet and rain to fall in Atlanta to start then transition into freezing rain. If any snow falls in Atlanta then mid levels are colder then forecast. Greenville Spartanburg may see a few flakes to start then mix to freezing rain. The key component in this storm will be wind direction. If the winds go NE after start of precip expect up to ½ inch of ice, if they go ESE then expect a light glaze to rain. You can bet the big boys are watching this. If this is the case then expect Winter Storm warnings and Advisories to be changed to, Ice Storm Warnings, later today in Northern Georgia and Up-State South Carolina.

Winter Storm Warnings should remain In Western North Carolina with up to 1-2 inches of snow South to North and up to ¼ inch of ice.

I could be wrong but sometimes you got to lay it on the line. The Mets in NYC are my heroes.

There will be a second Storm going on in the Midwest along the artic boundary. Snow totals look like 4- 8 inches in Kansas, Traci’s House and Steve’s House. Expect high winds on the back side up to 40 mph and good luck measuring that storm total. Most of the snow will drift and blow. Dangerous wind chills and below zero temps will pass by you on the way to Dyndrites house. It will modify of course in that warm January sunshine.

If the Storm taps the moisture from the Gulf Low look for the higher totals. If by some freak of nature the Gulf low blows up with Thunderstorms in the gulf then expect lighter amounts.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date at 12 noon sleet was falling in the rain with temps in the low 40’s central Alabama and Mississippi. Expect Mix in Tennessee as well. Parts of North east Tennessee may have advisories issued as Storm develops.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date

Winds have gone north and north west Texas coast. Buoy SSE of Louisiana reports winds NNE at 45 mph. This means surface front with low has pasted east of this area.

Squall line has developed in Gulf of Mexico. Dynamics with this Winter Storm are increasing as we speak. Severe weather is a possibility over Florida late today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms with strait line winds over 55 mph and possible tornados.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date

15Z RUC has Mid level ridge stronger and further west than forecast. Closed 850 Mb low in SW Louisiana with broad mid level low trying to cut off. If this happens then mid level warm air advection would stop from this point north and west and Mississippi valley could be in for more wintry precip. Expect advisories to be issued accordingly.

850 MB isotherms have dropped to +2 NW Florida. In case you guys cant tell I love this crap.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date

18 Z ob from dyndrites house. 250 thin overcast winds calm. Temp 39, dewpoint at GSO, 8F dew points in Atlanta 17F and CLT 11F.

The reason I am giving these numbers is for evaporative cooling. For those that don’t understand this I give the following explanation.

Weather 101,

During phase change of water, when water goes from a liquid to a gas it takes heat out of the air and cools the air

A little experiment to drive this point home and I don’t mean to freak anyone out. Take your tongue and like the top of your hand. Blow on it. The cold sensation you feel is evaporative cooling. That’s why the temperature drops when precipitation begins.

Dyndrite

[tayfromnc]

This system seems to be multi-faceted as these systems coming from the gulf usually are. So generally speaking is the area from from Charlotte northeast to Raleigh basically in the same boat as far as the storm is concerned? And this potential Saturday system bears watching as the air looks to having a deeper field of cold air. Dyndrite if you see this post it would be great. thx.

[dyndrite]

Up-date

Latest satellite data shows Low pressure in Gulf of Mexico 75 miles south of Alabama Florida border.

Keep in mind that these storms can generate their own cold air at mid levels. Temps are around 40F in western NC with thin overcast. This is impressive. Low is moving East not NNE.

Latest surface data has shown sleet to herald in the prcip, this is high level dendrite formation. We shell watch and see.

Dyndrite