Southern Storm 1 of 2008

[dyndrite]

I figured if the big boys can forecast a storm that is not here yet, so can I. The storm will begin in Texas tomorrow afternoon. We already have low level and midlevel residual moisture in SE Texas. The subtropical jet is becoming active with high level cirrus streaming in across Mexico.

A general overview of this storm will feature cold surface conditions across the south. With Rain cold north winds with an occasional sleet pellet with temps in the 30’s Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Alabama. Areas to the north should expect to see precip began as a period of snow, transitioning to rain. Primary trouble areas will be Eastern Oklahoma and NW Arkansas and Missouri. Wet snow or rain snow mix changing to snow. Snow Eastern Iowa, Illinois, including Chicago Wednesday night. Accumulations in the colder areas 1-3 inches.

A cold Artic air mass, the coldest of the season will follow this storm so even in areas of wet snow and rain expect rapid freezing and black ice after dark..

The mostly snow line would be, Extreme northern Alabama, Mississippi, near the Tenn boarder, Central and eastern Tennessee with the bulls eye in NE Tennessee and NW north Carolina Mountains, western slopes, Mountains of North Carolina and Va. Maybe a rain and sleet mix in the southern regions of this corridor all inclusive.

Major problem areas will be the normal Ice storm areas of NE Ga., Upstate SC, Western NC, South Central Va. This is looking like snow changing to sleet then to Ice in the climatologically favored areas, we know who we are.

Mitigating factors would be the dry air aloft in the warm nose may extend the period of sleet till saturation, northern and western areas. Aggravating factors are the light winds that will allow for rain to freeze on power lines without being blown off. The standard Forecast from the NWS is Freezing rain changing to rain until it don’t then they change the forecast. With Cold conditions the next few days, temps in the mid 20’s, the next few nights. High pressure over new England and ridging down the eastern seaboard during the height of the storm, weak surface gradient, residents of the normal Ice Storm areas should check their winter storm Kits, and be prepared to lose power.

Early take on the north east is Rain in the big cities and snow north and west figured you guys need a second opinion, dang that was mean, sorry.

That’s the latest.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

I think I shell name my Southern Winter Storms. The first one shell be, “Winter Storm Allison.”

As soon as a closed circulation in the Gulf of Mexico occurs it shell be given this name and start the thread. Paul Kocin can take a back seat.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

As you know most all Major Winter Storms start in the South in the gulf of Mexico. This storm will effect areas of Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and the NE.

We will follow it as it develops.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

The internet gives you eyes, This is from the high country in western NC.

HighCountryWebCams.com offers Western North Carolina Web Cameras

I have eyes boys.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

I recomend Charlies Beach cam at 2900 feet.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

For those that don’t know Beach mountain is a ski resort in the mountains of NC.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

I was told Charlie’s may be 3200 ft. Sorry.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

18Z Update

Heaviest Snow NE Tennessee. Greatest Ice in Western NC.

Dyndrite

[spanky]

What can we expect in NW SC?

[dyndrite]

Snow changing to sleet then freezing rain.

Dyndrite