Southern Storm 2

[dyndrite]

Up-date

Satellite data shows upper level energy moving across Northern Mexico. Low pressure area is just now starting to move NE. Current Storm Location 100 miles East of Brownsville Texas, moving NE at 30 mph.

Moisture in East Texas with light rain and sleet with temps in the upper 30’s and low 40’s. Central Louisiana reporting sleet and 41 F. Moisture plum not handled by the models very well is about to move into eastern Louisiana. Multiple squall lines are visible on the satellite imagery

Sunshine has broke out in NE Ga, and upstate SC. Temperatures have warmed into the low and mid 50’s. That is the reason no watches and warnings will be issued until later to day and tonight. I am sure the Meteorologist in charge is on the phone talking to who ever will listen. Dr Phil pick up please.

Expect Temps to fall of quickly after sunset, Precip will likely begin as rain in this area and a mix of rain and snow in NC. As the trof moves east and taps the Artic Air swings SE then expect this area to change to snow late tonight or early Saturday Morning.

Even Coastal areas of Northern South Carolina and NC will likely see a change over to snow before ending with a dusting to an inch. Temps will fall during the day Saturday with high temps reached early in the morning. Gusty NW winds will develop.

Northern Alabama can expect 1 to locally 2 inches of snow higher totals closer to N Georgia.

[dyndrite]

Up-date,

Shreveport La reporting rain snow mix. Precip has changed to snow in north central Texas. Artic trof is swinging Sw out of Northern Texas. Dew points have gone below zero.

Primary Artic front has moved into western Illinois and middle Missouri. Winds gusty to 35 mph.

Parts of central Alabama and Mississippi could get ripped off if clouds come in right at sunset and cap day time heating.

Dyndrite

[spanky]

does this storm still look to you as a major event with possible snow totals in 4-8 inch range like you previous thought in the upstate to Raleigh area?

[dyndrite]

I have downgraded it to 3-5. Only because of a more southerly track and slower progression of precip fields in model output.

Keep in mind that this is a developing Storm. If you live in the southeast you know the meteorologist are conservative. They said I believe 1-3 last night. I figure they will go 2-4 tonight. Now I will admit that the models are progressing the Artic front through NC and relocating the surface Low off Hatterass without a truly developed Storm center.

I also know this is a dynamic situation and a rapid intensification can occur.

The short answer is, Yes.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Commentary.

Forecasting Snow Storms are tuff in the southeast. It gets real hard when temps are in the low 50s. One of the biggest storms I ever saw in western NC it was 52 and partly cloudy at 3 pm. On my way to work the high clouds were coming in. At 8PM it was raining and 43. By midnight it was snowing like crazy and 35. We go 12 inches of snow the next day with temps of 33 the whole storm. That was January 21, 1985.

A few little points to consider.

Old weatherman rule 14-129- When forecasting snow It don’t matter what is happening at the surface.

I know that sounds strange but If you have ever watched it rain at 23 degrees you get the point. If you have ever saw it snow at 43 degrees you get the point.

Old weatherman rule 9-025- understand the phase change and all the components of evaporative and radational cooling is imperative.

If it gets warm the day before that’s one thing. If it is cloudy at sunset that’s another. We are past maximum heating at this point. Its all down hill.

Just one other point. Precipitation fields are further north than pronged. Folks in southern Tennessee should monitor this storm.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

You know I love this crap. You know the meteorologist in NE Ga and Upstate SC are on the phone to Dr. Phil.

This is What he said,

“Look guys the major cloud field is in Mississippi. The sun is gong to set before you go overcast. Dew points in North Ga are in mid 20’s and mid 30’s in Atlanta. Just look at your upper level isothermal analysis and take a chill pill. Sure it is going to rain to start, Call those guys in Central Alabama and calm down OK.”

Dyndrite

[spanky]

dyndrite, NWS at GSP just put out a snow advisory for all of the mountians and foothills of NC an the entire upstate of SC for 1-3 inches of snow. why would this be a snow avisory and not a Winter Storm Watch? whats the difference?

[dyndrite]

Hats off to the guys in Greenville NC. First to issue a Winter Storm warning.

I love a good weatherman.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Spanky

They are hedging there bet, an advisory of 3 or a storm of 4. They will catch up.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

You know this Kind of stuff brings out the big boys. I really do get jazzed up. They are looking in there books and making phone calls, LMFAO

Old weatherman rule -1- If you believe it say it.

Dyndrite