Official Storm thread 1-31 through 2-2.

[dyndrite]

Early take on developing Winter Storm.

Snow developing Kansas, Oklahoma and NW Arkansas Thursday morning. Low pressure will track NE to NE Ohio Friday.

Heaviest Snow Missouri, Illinois, Indian, Nw Ohio and SE Michigan. 4-8 inches of snow with locally 10-12 inches

Ice Storm Conditions will develop in NY state, PA. Residents of this area should prepare to lose power.

Dyndrite

[traci1972]

We did not get much snow yesterday just bad winds.
But more snow tonight, Fri and Sun into Mon wintery mix is what they are calling for.

[dyndrite]

Latest data suggest High pressure over New England may be a little harder to move out. This will supply cold dry air down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Areas in Western Va. And NW North Carolina can expect precip to begin as a mix of sleet and freezing rain.

This may also move Center of Storm a little further west. This could effect Storm totals in NW Illinois and Chicago proper. True Artic Air will be lurking just to the North of this Storm. The possibility of this being tapped and transported over lake Michigan will be monitored.

Will up-date 5 or 6PM EST.

Traci, I saw you get dry slotted on the radar yesterday. Lot more snow north and south of you. This Storm is suppose to go east of you as far as the big snow. The last few runs it has been further west. Stay tuned

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Good news for NY State. Looks like there will be an energy transfer to the coast of New Jersey as the storm is blocked in NE Ohio. This means precip should fall as snow. They will be two precip maximums of 10-12 inches Northern Indiana and 15-24 inches NE NY State.

Cold air may remained trapped in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and parts of Northern Pa. Severe Icing may develop.


Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date

Every run the Low pressure center is moving further south. The high pressure over the great lakes is stronger. The track and strength of the storm is stronger each run.

Max snow this run 10-14 inches over west central Indiana. Precip fields are running behind. Radar shows precipitation developing rapidly over the central gulf and East Texas.

Looks like we got us a genuine Winter Storm forming.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

As of 5:00 AM EST Main Storm energy, aka, 500 MB vortmax is swinging south in eastern New Mexico. This is a lot further west and south than forecast. This feature is clearly visible on the Radar loop and will be easy to track

Clouds and precipitation are developing rapidly and with the westward and southward jog moderate to heavy snow developing in Texas Panhandle, NW Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Greatest pressure falls are in SE Texas in response to the SE movement of the surface feature near the Oklahoma, Texas border.

Latest runs show the High pressure area over the great lakes to be a little stronger still and will impede the North East movement of the storm. Secondary development will dictate Snow vs. Ice in the NE

Latest Satiate and radar indicate moisture surge that may include SE Iowa in the snowfall. Areas of Sleet and some snow have developed in Western Tennessee a lot faster than forecast. Squall line developing in central Texas moving SE. Thunderstorms developing Louisiana.

Looks like it is going to be a good one.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Complex storm indeed. The true Storm is located in North Central Texas moving South East still and shows up well on the water vapor. Not as pretty as the Nantucket Storm last week but still nice to look at.

Surface Feature one is on the Texas Oklahoma line and is waiting on the mid level feature to pass and it will get sucked South. Couple of waves. One at the base of the convective complex in South East Texas and a little energy developing in the North east Gulf of Mexico to boot. These shall all merge and swing North East to central Tennessee.

Fascinating to watch all of the pieces come together. Max snow still looks like SE Missouri, Eastern Illinois and Western Indiana with 10-14 inches of snow. 4-8 northern OK, SE Kansas

A couple of unanswered questions are. How much moisture will get sucked into the system before it makes the NE turn and falls as Snow in Northern Texas? What happens to the Storm when it hit’s the ridge in the NE?

Stay tuned .

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Just a couple of side notes as we watch the Storm come together.

Temperatures under sunny skies in west Kansas and North West Texas in the mid teens.

Winds along the east side of the Appalachians NE 15-25 mph gust to 30.

Dew points:

Rome Ga. 0F
Atlanta Ga. 13F
Greenville/Spartanburg 9F
Greensboro NC 6F
Raleigh NC 12F

Remember Snow pack changes thermal profiles and long range forecast. Don’t put too much stock in long term forecast till after this storm passes.

Temperatures in the Mid west and Ohio valley have been very cold. Ground temperatures will support snow fall unlike the snow we had in the SE a week ago.

For the Ohio folks, Mid level warming and down sloping will impede your snow fall on the front side but expect 1-4 inches on the back side.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Looks like Snow is knocking on the door in St. Louis. Interesting a period of heavier snow is posed in North Central OK as the mid level storm meanders across North central Texas. If any one has Storm totals or conditions in this area please post.

Freezing rain has taken over North central Arkansas but look for a changeover later today as Storm moves NE.

12 Z GFS had nothing to add as NAM is better with short term thermal profiles. Lets kick back and do the Storm.

Tom T Hall
YouTube - Tom.T Hall' Faster Horses, Younger Women

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

OK, just got some reports of 6-10 inches in North Central Oklahoma from the NWS OK

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

I think Dyndrite said there would be a Major winter Storm. It be happening folks.

Dyndrite