Commentary

[dyndrite]

Just thought I would start a thread for anyone to post comments and thoughts of what is shaping up to be a dynamic Stormy year.

We have already had a couple of Historic Storms this year. I am starting to believe, looking at the long range models, that we are looking at a extremely volatile time.

The storm track is starting to move south again with heavy snow in the mid-west and Severe weather in the south. This will progress south for the next couple of weeks.

The snow pack is expanding se in spite of warm intervals. This last warm up was 200 miles further south than the one in January. The storm track in the West shows signs of relaxing as storms move further north and pacific ridge moves east.

You had to figure it would happen. They have been hammered.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Break continues out west as Strong Jet digs Southwest as Pacific ridge nudges East. Areas of Low pressure from SW Canada and Front Range will move East and allow Artic Air to move SE. Artic front about 100 miles North of the Canadian border.

Models are all over the place with extent of Artic Air Southern Movement and this trend of no trend has been going on for 24 hours..

Lots of ointment with Cold air moving South. One major Fly will be the Southern jet. Current Satellite data shows several Disturbances meandering along it.

Another Fly will be the eventual orientation of surface trof. By that I mean SW to NE which is good and N to S which is bad. North to South would allow for northward advection of warm moist air out of the gulf and to be honest after last week I am a little spooked.

The bottom line is break is about over, start packing that lunch box up. The horn is about to blow and its time to go back to work.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Long range models have been consistent with next Artic intrusion into the Winter weary Mid-west next week. Temps could fall to -20 to -40 Iowa north with Snow and blowing snow then light winds.. The winds will be lighter so I don’t know what is worse -10 to -20 with -40 wind chills or not.

Potential Winter Storm in the Ohio Valley next week. That would be in the Flood areas. I think Paul Cohen tried to come up with a, “Storm Index,” like the hurricane folks. I think Dyndrite is going to come up with a, “Misery Index.”. Let’s see, Floods, Bitter cold and Snow Storm. That would be a 4. On a 1-5 scale

When I was Stationed at Chanute AFB in Rantoul Ill. I could never tell the difference between 5 and -5 when it was windy.

Dyndrite

[spanky]

Dyndrite,
whats your thoughts on the remaining winter season that we have left here in the south. Do you think we will see any more winter storms?

[dyndrite]

Spanky,

It has been a strange winter indeed. I have never seen so many periods of cold and warmth. The poor folks in the Midwest have got to catch a break soon.

Looks like the Storm track heads east and south this week. Ice threat Western Carolinas Va. Thursday night and Friday. Gulf wave moves over the south east Saturday night.

The question as all ways is, How cold will it be? Artic High moves to our north on Thursday and ties to the snow pack in the Midwest. Could be a Stormy time coming.

Some of the biggest Storms on record hit in March.

Dyndrite

[spanky]

yeah March 1993 comes to mind with that; I was reading Joe Bastardi's column yesterday and one of his 8-14 days analog was showing up the March 1993 analog. Something to dwell on I guess.