Official Artic Storm Thread

[dyndrite]

Artic Front is just on the Montana/Canadian border at 18Z. 12z run shows the main Storm to Skirt the US/Canadian Border with the Artic Front digging SE. This is about 75 miles further south than the 00Z run last night.

Current Location is about 50 miles further south still at 18Z. Temps are in the mid 30’s across most of Montana SSW winds 20-30 mph gusting to 40.

Expect Snow and Blowing Snow with Temps falling rapidly to below Zero across northern sections this afternoon. Winds becoming NW 25-30 gust to 45 next few hours.

Low pressure has formed on old Artic boundary over Northern Iowa. Patchy Light Snow has already been falling this morning across Minnesota, Wisconsin Northern Ill., Indiana and Michigan Expect Snow to increase over this area late this afternoon as warm air overruns cold air in place.1-2 inches

Conditions will deteriorate rapidly over North Dakota this evening with Light snow and blowing Snow with Blizzard Conditions. This Storm will move East Tomorrow.

Temps should fall to -10 to -25 South to north from Iowa to Canadian Border by Sunday morning. Winds Increasing from the NW 20-30 mph gust to 45 with Light Snow and Blowing Snow.

More later

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date

Temps are falling rapidly in Montana. Cutbank at 2 with 30 mph winds. Winds gusting to 40 to the south. Snow seems to be lagging about 40 miles behind front.

Latest Model run has gotten even Colder with lows Sunday and Monday morning -30 to -35 along US/Canada Border. Temps Sunday Below Zero throughout most of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Winds will still be up20 to 30 and gusty with wind chills -50 in some areas with blowing Snow and Blizzard conditions in localized areas, more widespread Northern areas.

Michigan will get Snow Squalls off the lakes, Can’t rule out a little lightning with some cells as Cold air Maximum passes over Lake Superior in the UP

Flood areas will cool to near Zero Sunday Morning.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date

00Z NAM is Colder still and further south. 60 hr temps in southern Missouri have dropped from 55 to 25. that’s a lot.

For all practical purposes all forecast in the South and East past 48 hours are null and void.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date

12Z Temperatures are 5-10 degrees colder in North and South Dakota. Artic Front Further South and West than Forecast last night. Winds 30 40 mph. Lowest temps -15 to -18 border towns.

Snow and Blowing Snow. Falling temps will be the order of the day. Michigan looks like the Snow winner if that’s what you want to call it.

Snow developing in Pa. and NY State. Looks like 1-3 in the tri-state and 3-5 New England States tonight and Tomorrow.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date

Latest Satellite data shows Artic front Just entering Northern Nebraska. Extreme NW Iowa and Extreme Western Minnesota. Some convection is Visible North and West of Surface front.

Radar is not a lot of help in Cold Artic Air. Snow is very hard to pick up. Surface reports show moderate to heavy Snow Extreme Northeastern North Dakota. And Western Minnesota. Blowing Snow to west. Light snow Southern Minnesota Southwestward to North central Nebraska. Winds 20-30 mph gust 35 to 45.

Computer Models continue to have a hard time with surface features spinning around Mid level Storm north Central Minnesota, moving ESE.

Expect worst Conditions Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon. Snow fall is heaver than anticipated with band of Moderate to heavy Snow moving SE into Wisconsin. Visibility as low as ¼ mile. As available snow is blown SE expect visibility to fall to 1/8 mile with isolated white out conditions Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Front moves across Lake Michigan and Superior this afternoon. Lake gust to 60 mph.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date

Looking at all the new guidance some changes to note. Snow fall totals will be strictly Climatological in the Lakes. With the bitter cold temps Ratios could go 20:1. 3-6 inches Minnesota, Wisconsin. Snowfall over the UP of Michigan is anyone’s guess. Lets go with 8 -12 with localized 18-24 in Convective bands.

1-3 Northern Indiana and Ohio. 3-6 PA. and NY State with localized 10-12 in Convective bands off the Lakes. 1-2 Tri-state and 2-4 New England.

Visibilities dropping to ¼ mile western Iowa. Heavier Snow band extending South. Will include Iowa in the 1-2 Inch snowfall. This means Northern Ill is now under the gun.

Dangerous wind-chills and Blowing and Drifting Snow will accompany front to the East Coast.

New Storm forms next week. Path and strength is uncertain, Mid and long term forecast models are still suspect at this time.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Satellite data shows some breaks in the clouds on Lake Michigan. Oh yea, a little solar radiation before Artic frontal passage.

Ill admit it. I love a good Storm. Good storm being no Tornados. I was thinking some convection on the lakes. Ill shut and watch.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Starting to get a little convection in Northern Nebraska. With Heavy Snow showers developing along Artic boundary. Stratocumulus with SE intrusion Impressive and easy on the eyes on sat loop. Convection in Minnesota is impressive.

Artic Air masses are a little different . Radar and satellite aren’t much help. I have seen moderate to heavy snow with clear skies. Blowing snow depiction on satellite data is a bust.

Did I say aren’t, sorry, should have been aint.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Up-date

Moderate to heavy snow in Pa. and NY State. Rain in Gotham. Don’t worry should change over in central park to snow showers tonight.

New York City, sorry the Gotham thing is whatever.

Snow Showers develop Tonight and continue Tomorrow. 1-2 inches of Snow possible in Convective bands with thunder. 1-3 in the high country of New Jersey. Was there a couple of weeks ago.

Winds gust to 50 mph.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

Latest Surface data shows heavy Convective snow showers in Central Minnesota extending south to Iowa. Heavy Snow reported in NW Iowa.

Steve Its Heading your way. Zardoz. Report on Artic passage snow fall rates and conditions please

Dyndrite