Official Storm thread Feb 21-24

dyndrite · 02-21-2008, 10:14 AM

Wanted to bring everyone in on this one. This is going to be a major winter Storm with a large area of influence.

Sleet and freezing rain over MO, Southern Ill. And Kentucky with dangerous conditions developing. ½ to 1 inch of ice is possible. This will move north into southern Indiana and Ohio.

Precipitation will start as Snow to the North and change to Ice. The movement of Mid level disturbance over New Mexico and the movement of mid level trof out of southern Canada to the south East will dictate precip types and intensity.

No major surface features are forecast at this time. Several weak surface and mid level disturbances are interacting with old artic air mass.

The main Models are still all over the place. To be honest I have never seen this type of chaos in computer intelligence this close to an event. Could it be that this scenario has blown their minds.

The bottom line is the Storm is still forming.

Areas in Central and Northern MO, Ill., Indiana, Ohio, southern Michigan, Penn state, NY state, New Jersey and NYC should monitor this storm. Western VA. And NW Va. And Shenandoah Valley should prepare for major Ice Storm.

The Carolinas are still unknown.

Dyndrite

spanky · 02-21-2008, 10:47 AM

Dyndrite,
I know this way out there and we have a storm now going on; next week and after do you See any major storms on the models and do you agree with what Joe Bas. saying about next week some time there could be another major trough amplification similar to 1993. Just wondering what your thoughts are on that.

dyndrite · 02-21-2008, 10:54 AM

I don’t know about next week. Today we have 39 degrees and Snow in Rome Ga. I did not see that in any computer models.

18Z temp in Norfolk was 40. It has been 32 for a while. I thinks we got one brewing.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 02-21-2008, 11:19 AM

Noon 40 degrees and light snow in Rome GA. Still 32 in Norfolk my third home town.

41 degrees in Bristol with only one hour to go for that 60 degree temp. I love computers but dang. 6 hours out they should know better.

Temps are colder in Tenn for a reason. Cold air damning happens on both sides. Artic Air and its aftermath is hard on those chips.

Temps out west are 10-15 degrees too warm. Temps to the east are 5-10 degrees too warm.

I love this crap

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 02-21-2008, 11:28 AM

Spanky,

I have seen that trof Joe speaks of next week.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 02-21-2008, 11:46 AM

Several waves developing. One in NW Arkansas. One in NW Mississippi. One off the coast of the Carolinas.

Old Artic High pressure and dew points in the single digits have developed over Eastern NC.

We have two phase change elements to contend. When water goes from a liquid to a gas it cools. When water goes from a liquid to a solid it releases heat.

That is what we are dealing with.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 02-21-2008, 12:02 PM

Heavy Freezing rain in central MO. Hats off to those folks, that’s got to be a bummer.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 02-21-2008, 12:19 PM

18Z up-date

That would be 1 PM EST for those that do not know.

Lets do a little computer model forecast vs. real stuff for ya. Keep in mind this is just 6hrs.

Rome Ga. 40 degrees and light rain. Computer forecast, NAM- 51. Dang that’s got to hurt.
GFS- 45, that would be more better.

Tri city Tenn. NAM said- 60. GFS said 55. Temp 43, dang that’s got to hurt.

Norfolk Va. Nam said 39, GFS said 39 Temp was 32, dang that has to hurt.

That was for spite. That’s why we got people looking and thinking.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 02-21-2008, 12:54 PM

Carolina forecast,

Snow and sleet changing to rain on the onset. Rain changing to freezing rain over western sections. Cold rain after that.

Models are all over the place. If 6 Hr profiles are not valid then anything else is suspect.

If Joe sees a Storm then we shall see. We go back a ways.

Dyndrite

dyndrite · 02-21-2008, 01:14 PM

Looks like the models are right on the east coast 50 degrees and rain

Problem is that is at 3000 feet. We live at the surface. Models 10-20 degrees too warm at the surface. That’s right.

Main surface low over Southern Arkansas. Let us move east in that dry air.

Dyndrite

02-21-2008, 10:14 AM	#1
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Official Storm thread Feb 21-24 Wanted to bring everyone in on this one. This is going to be a major winter Storm with a large area of influence. Sleet and freezing rain over MO, Southern Ill. And Kentucky with dangerous conditions developing. ½ to 1 inch of ice is possible. This will move north into southern Indiana and Ohio. Precipitation will start as Snow to the North and change to Ice. The movement of Mid level disturbance over New Mexico and the movement of mid level trof out of southern Canada to the south East will dictate precip types and intensity. No major surface features are forecast at this time. Several weak surface and mid level disturbances are interacting with old artic air mass. The main Models are still all over the place. To be honest I have never seen this type of chaos in computer intelligence this close to an event. Could it be that this scenario has blown their minds. The bottom line is the Storm is still forming. Areas in Central and Northern MO, Ill., Indiana, Ohio, southern Michigan, Penn state, NY state, New Jersey and NYC should monitor this storm. Western VA. And NW Va. And Shenandoah Valley should prepare for major Ice Storm. The Carolinas are still unknown. Dyndrite

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02-21-2008, 10:47 AM	#2
spanky Junior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Boiling Springs SC (upstate) Age: 45 Posts: 49	Dyndrite, I know this way out there and we have a storm now going on; next week and after do you See any major storms on the models and do you agree with what Joe Bas. saying about next week some time there could be another major trough amplification similar to 1993. Just wondering what your thoughts are on that.

02-21-2008, 10:54 AM	#3
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	I don’t know about next week. Today we have 39 degrees and Snow in Rome Ga. I did not see that in any computer models. 18Z temp in Norfolk was 40. It has been 32 for a while. I thinks we got one brewing. Dyndrite

02-21-2008, 11:19 AM	#4
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Noon 40 degrees and light snow in Rome GA. Still 32 in Norfolk my third home town. 41 degrees in Bristol with only one hour to go for that 60 degree temp. I love computers but dang. 6 hours out they should know better. Temps are colder in Tenn for a reason. Cold air damning happens on both sides. Artic Air and its aftermath is hard on those chips. Temps out west are 10-15 degrees too warm. Temps to the east are 5-10 degrees too warm. I love this crap Dyndrite

02-21-2008, 11:28 AM	#5
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Spanky, I have seen that trof Joe speaks of next week. Dyndrite

02-21-2008, 11:46 AM	#6
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Several waves developing. One in NW Arkansas. One in NW Mississippi. One off the coast of the Carolinas. Old Artic High pressure and dew points in the single digits have developed over Eastern NC. We have two phase change elements to contend. When water goes from a liquid to a gas it cools. When water goes from a liquid to a solid it releases heat. That is what we are dealing with. Dyndrite

02-21-2008, 12:02 PM	#7
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Heavy Freezing rain in central MO. Hats off to those folks, that’s got to be a bummer. Dyndrite

02-21-2008, 12:19 PM	#8
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	18Z up-date That would be 1 PM EST for those that do not know. Lets do a little computer model forecast vs. real stuff for ya. Keep in mind this is just 6hrs. Rome Ga. 40 degrees and light rain. Computer forecast, NAM- 51. Dang that’s got to hurt. GFS- 45, that would be more better. Tri city Tenn. NAM said- 60. GFS said 55. Temp 43, dang that’s got to hurt. Norfolk Va. Nam said 39, GFS said 39 Temp was 32, dang that has to hurt. That was for spite. That’s why we got people looking and thinking. Dyndrite

02-21-2008, 12:54 PM	#9
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Carolina forecast, Snow and sleet changing to rain on the onset. Rain changing to freezing rain over western sections. Cold rain after that. Models are all over the place. If 6 Hr profiles are not valid then anything else is suspect. If Joe sees a Storm then we shall see. We go back a ways. Dyndrite

02-21-2008, 01:14 PM	#10
dyndrite Banned Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 497	Looks like the models are right on the east coast 50 degrees and rain Problem is that is at 3000 feet. We live at the surface. Models 10-20 degrees too warm at the surface. That’s right. Main surface low over Southern Arkansas. Let us move east in that dry air. Dyndrite

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