Dangerous Storm developing

[dyndrite]

Several Storms have deposited snow in the Mid-west, Great lakes and North East the last few weeks. so cold air advection will progress rapidly east. Upper level low will move along the southern stream into Mexico next 48 hours. Artic air will head southeast out of Canada. Storm forms in Central Texas in 84 hours.

What we know for sure is artic air will move south. Storm will form in Texas and move NE. Warm moist air will develop to the south of this storm with strong mid level dynamics. Severe weather and, “MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK” is possible over the South. Heavy Snow to the west and southwest will develop with this storm.

This storm will effect a lot of people. The path is uncertain with models taking it as far NE as lake Erie and as far south as The Carolinians.

Mid and low level dynamics will come together to produce a Major storm. High winds and rapid temperature changes will occur.

Stay tuned

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

12Z GFS is 100 miles further south with moderate Snow in in Western Tenn. and central Mississippi in 120 hours. Heavy snow in Tenn. Then moving North into Kentucky, Ohio and West Va. This has been the trend. The trends plus reality will set us free.

The bottom line is cold air and snow is moving east. There is a lot of climatology in the models from the 70’s. Anything past 72 hours is suspect.

I hate tornados and if I can give anyone a heads-up then that’s cool. This could be bad folks. Texas to South Carolina should monitor this storm

I may tag this, Southern Storm, in 48 hours who knows. Dynamic environment.

Dyndrite

[dyndrite]

18Z progs show mid level dynamics further east. Cold air further east. Could the Canadian model and Euro be kicking our rear?

High pressure off the east coast will tell the tell. In all honesty the NAM was running behind. No upper level soundings with this.

PS. This is the trof Joe was talking about. We gots us a Storm.

Dyndrite

[spanky]

I just hope its the winter variety in my area though. I would love to see a big winter storm instead of tornado's and the severe side.

keep us updated on what you think is going to happen here in the Carolinas

[dyndrite]

18Z GFS is further south. Major Storm in Mississippi Monday. Winds 30-40 mph around center. Heavy snow and thunderstorms.

Dyndrite

[Steve]

remember the models just about always underplay southern stream waves since they do not forecast the convection correctly. Thus add a stronger upper level system to the mix and we get a strong storm system that goes further west.

[dyndrite]

Yep, Some one up your way is going to get a lot of snow. Looks like bad Storms in the south. Tornado outbreak seems likely and with no cold dome on this side of the mountains things could get hairy here.

Dyndrite

[Steve]

mke discussion:

REMEMBER THAT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROF THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO LEAVE US ALONG AN GO LOUDLY UP
THE EAST COAST? WELL...IT APPEARS TO BE BACK PEDDLING AND COULD
CLIP OUR SE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTN. THE NEW GFS SLAPS THE MKE AREA
WITH .40 INCES OF LIQ...WHICH WOULD BE ALL SNOW IF IT HAPPENS. THE NEW
ECMWF THAT HAD BEEN WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THE 00Z RUN...HAS NOW
BROUGHT THE PCPN UP TO WAUKEGAN. THE TREND IS DISTURBING...AS WE
HAVE SEEN THIS TOO MANY TIMES THIS WINTER. HAVE PUT POPS INTO THE
SE FOR TUESDAY AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MODELS RUNS TO ACHIEVE CONFIDENCE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN. THE MANTRA
HERE...THEY NEVER STAY SOUTH. SORRY FOLKS.

[dyndrite]

Steve,

As Ronald Ragan us to say, “Well, there you go again.”

Never is all inclusive. They do go south sometime.

Looks like the heaviest snow will be from MO into Ill Indiana and southern Michigan. I would be surprised if Wisconsin and Iowa receive any significant snow, 1-3 maybe. I think the frontal passage frontal weather from this system and Energy moving SE in the northern stream that was going to be a clipper type system is a bigger threat to your area, but who knows. I guess it is what we say is causing it to snow.

Looks like a band of 8-16 inches of snow to the northwest of this storm as cold front slows down over Ill and Arkansas. As the mid level energy cuts off from the northern stream high pressure builds into New England. New York State East could get 1-2 feet of snow as Storm moves into Ohio and hangs a right.

Severe weather threat is still in the cards in The South and East, dang it.

Dyndrite

[Steve]

Dyntrite:

There YOU go again, not reading what is written. To digress to the first time we had this discussion, I said most -not all. As far as the latest post it clearly says on the top-mke discussion (from the Milwaukee NWSFO), not steve discussion. My guess here is the writer meant it figuratively not literally. In any case, I do agree what you said about Iowa and Wisconsin.

Steve