DR GRAY: massive drop in numbers

[rainstorm]

http://www.abc-7.com/articles/readne...id=8197&z=2&p=

LEE COUNTY: ABC7 got an exclusive look at the new hurricane forecast from renowned hurricane expert Dr. William Gray. According to the forecast to be published August 3rd, there will be 13 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes. The numbers are lower than the predictions released May 31st, the day before hurricane season started.

The revised forecast also calls for a 64 percent probability of a major hurricane striking the peninsula of Florida.

Landfall Probabilities for 2006

Probabilities for at least one or more major (category 3-4-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas:

May 31st

• Entire U.S. coastline - 82-percent (average for last century is 52-percent)
• U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 69% (average for last century is 31-percent)
• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 38% (average for last century is 30-percent)
• Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

August 3rd

• Entire U.S. coastline - 73-percent (average for last century is 52-percent)
• U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 64-percent (average for last century is 31-percent)
• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 26-percent (average for last century is 30-percent)
• Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean and in the Bahamas

The National Hurricane Center will release its new numbers next Tuesday. They don't expect the numbers to go down significantly.
Their most recent forecast includes 12 to 15 named storms, 7 to 9 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.