Severe Weather for the Today

[liveweatherman]

Severe Thunderstorm threat this afternoon for Mid-Atlantic
An In depth-analysis by: Mike Defino

The latest forecast is for some interesting weather to take place across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening along a stationary front with sfc low pressure system riding along it. The potential for super cells and lines with bowing segments is possible but the Mid- Atlantic area will be split into three sections and we will break that down. Funny thing about tomorrows threat is if we combined the best dynamics for each area we would see the potential for a descent severe weather outbreak.
New York-Northern PA-Northern NJ...This area will have the least to worry about due to the location of the best dynamics and ascent with the s/w further southward. However activity could pick up along the front in the evening hours but due to the lack of instability that is sfc based the threat should be for elevated storms. Strongest flow aloft will be over this area which will hurt the severe chances further southward.continue

Mid-Atlantic Radar Image

[liveweatherman]

Check the Latest Radar Image Here




TORNADO WATCH
Issue Date: 459 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
Expiration: 1100 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

ILC007-103-141-201-051600-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.A.0458.080605T1000Z-080605T1600Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 458 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

BOONE LEE OGLE
WINNEBAGO

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BELVIDERE...DIXON...
OREGON AND ROCKFORD.

[liveweatherman]

Supper Doppler Radar Here: FLASH FLOODING KANSAS-MISSOURI-OKLA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 601 AM CDT MON JUN 09 2008
Expiration: 600 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
600 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERSISTENT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCURRING THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND INTO AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24
IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ON ROADWAYS
AND ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF A PAOLA
KANSAS TO MOBERLY MISSOURI LINE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 1 PM FOR THIS REGION.

MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE ALREADY IN
FLOOD...AND THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE
FLOODING PROBLEMS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME. STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OCCURRING. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

[liveweatherman]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY...VT...PA AND
NJ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND...NY...MID-ATLANTIC AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE MT...NRN WY...SD AND
SW ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WI AND
LOWER MI...

...NERN STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACCELERATE NEWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG FORCING DUE TO THE FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A SQUALL-LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE AND MOVE
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA INCREASE VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES NEWD INTO THE
NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS AS A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS. SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE UPON INITIATION BUT THE STRONG FORCING SHOULD FAVOR
LINEAR DEVELOPMENT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BELOW 3 KM SHOULD PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NC...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD DUE TO WEAKER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP IN THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.

[liveweatherman]

Severe Weather Returns To Iowa & Nebraska
An in-depth analysis by ProMet Chris Sowers:
Severe weather looks to return to the High Plains and Upper Midwest today as an upper level low pressure system ejects out of the Rockies. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front that will stretch from eastern Nebraska/ western Iowa through northwestern Kansas. Some of these storms will produce strong gusty winds, large hail, dangerous lightning and tornadoes.
It appears that thunderstorm activity will be ongoing during the morning hours. These storms will be elevated in nature therefore large hail and strong winds will be the primary threats during the morning. But by afternoon the activity becomes more surfaced-based from the warm front southwestward along the cold front. These will be the storms that have the capability of becoming supercells producing very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. continue


As flooding continues in Iowa, chances of thunderstorm for today and tomorrow which will bring up the possibility of severe weather mostly likely in the form of large hail,damaging winds and isolated tornadoes..Heavy rain is also expected which may exceed to several inches that may cause flooding in some areas as well as might worsen the existing flooding..On the weekends there's still chances for thunderstorms to exist in some areas...

Radar Warnings across North Central:

[liveweatherman]

Flooding Problem in Iowa continues..
Scattered thunderstorms will move across central Iowa this morning. Some storms across the Northwest may produce large hail. Heavy rain is possible with any storm. More storms are forecast for late this afternoon and tonight. These storms will be very strong to severe. Large hail...damaging wind and tornadoes will all be possible across the western half of Iowa this evening. The severe threat will then shift East overnight. Additional heavy rainfall is likely with widespread amounts of 1 to 3 inches over the northwest half of the state, with spotty amounts of up to 5 inches over the northwest third. read more

Latest: Storm Total Precipitation Radar


FLASH FLOOD WARNING
Issue Date: 103 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008
Expiration: 430 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT FOR
STORY...HAMILTON...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN WRIGHT
COUNTIES...

FLOOD WARNING
Issue Date: 1203 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008
Expiration: 1200 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ELLSWORTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT MIDNIGHT CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS THAT K 14 FROM
INTERSTATE 70 TO ELLSWORTH WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

THIS WARNING REPLACES AND EXTENDS THE FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR ELLSWORTH AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

[liveweatherman]

Latest Radar: Great Plains



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 345 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES EAST OF SPRINGFIELD
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

[liveweatherman]

Latest: Kansas Doppler Radar




SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Issue Date: 225 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
Expiration: 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

KSC001-009-015-017-049-053-073-079-099-105-113-115-133-155-159-
167-169-173-191-205-207-161500-
/O.NEW.KICT.SV.A.0548.080616T0725Z-080616T1500Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
548 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS

IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 21 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL KANSAS

BARTON CHASE ELLSWORTH
LINCOLN MARION MCPHERSON
RICE RUSSELL SALINE

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS

BUTLER HARVEY RENO
SEDGWICK SUMNER

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS

ALLEN ELK GREENWOOD
LABETTE NEOSHO WILSON
WOODSON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AUGUSTA...CHANUTE...
COTTONWOOD FALLS...EL DORADO...ELLSWORTH...EUREKA...FREDONIA...
GREAT BEND...HILLSBORO...HOWARD...HUTCHINSON...IOLA...LI NCOLN...
LYONS...MARION...MCPHERSON...NEWTON...PARSONS...RU SSELL...
SALINA...WELLINGTON...WICHITA AND YATES CENTER.

$$

FLOOD WATCH
Issue Date: 303 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
Expiration: 400 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100-161900-
/O.EXT.KICT.FA.A.0011.000000T0000Z-080616T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z. OO/
GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-
LABETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EUREKA...YATES CENTER...IOLA...HOWARD...
FREDONIA...CHANUTE...ERIE...SEDAN...COFFEYVILLE... INDEPENDENCE...
PARSONS
302 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...ALLEN...CHAUTAUQUA...ELK...GREENWOOD...LAB ETTE...
MONTGOMERY...NEOSHO...WILSON AND WOODSON.

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...AND JUICY
AIRMASS YIELDING HIGH RAINFALL RATES. GROUND SOILS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE STILL RATHER MOIST FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING...WITH RAPID RUNOFF
LIKELY CAUSING SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO THE NEAR SATURATED
GROUND SOILS.

[liveweatherman]

Today's Forecast Map on Southern Plains


Latest Doppler Radar: Southern Plains



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z



...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...


...SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EASTWARD OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION/NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGH
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL OCCLUDE/EXIT THE NORTHEAST/MID
ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY...WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
COLD FRONT LINGERING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST STATES. FARTHER
WEST...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
IMPULSES/MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA CROSSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX.

...PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD THIS MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SD/NEB INTO
OK/NORTH TX. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME REINTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OK INTO THE ARKLATEX IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CINH/MODERATE
INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE REGIME WILL SPREAD
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY AROUND SOUTH-SAGGING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION/HEATING...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MT AND EASTERN WY...INTO
NORTHEAST NM AND THE RATON MESA VICINITY. MODERATELY STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /40-55 KT AT 500 MB/ AND VEERING WIND PROFILES
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

BY EARLY/MID EVENING...STORM MERGERS SHOULD RESULT IN THE EVOLUTION
OF ONE OR MORE SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR MCS/S WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM
WESTERN NEB INTO OK/NORTH TX. AIDED BY A NOCTURNALLY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET /30-35 KT/...AND WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM...ONE OR MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING MCS/S
APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BOWING STRUCTURES/WIND DAMAGE IN ADDITION TO THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

[liveweatherman]

Latest: Kansas Doppler Radar

Here:Special Weather Statements For KS


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO
BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHERN
KS INTO TX. SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION AND/OR PERIPHERAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS TX.

OTHERWISE...A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN EVOLVE ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS
THE UPPER RIDGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN WY INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SD/NEB...WITH
ADDITIONAL/PERHAPS MORE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. GIVEN A
MODEST INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM TUESDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A RESERVOIR OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A NUMBER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES BENEATH 50 KT MID LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES. DURING THE EVENING...TSTMS WILL
LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD
PROPAGATING/SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MOVING SEVERE MCS/S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK INTO NORTH TX.