Severe Weather for the Today

[liveweatherman]

More Severe Weather for the Southern Plains
- MikeDeFino's ProMet Blog

Synopsis....
Ongoing activity will make things tricky for the forecast period, but the overall confidence is fairly good for this forecast. Main feature in this outlook will be the upper level low moving into TX. Cold Front making its way through the Southern Plains will stall out and will retreat as a warm front across some portions such as the OK/TX border. Dry line will also be a major player in thunderstorm development towards the afternoon hours. Possibility of some weak elevated storms will exist across MT/ND/SD with a northern stream s/w. That threat will be unorganized and not severe.

Southern Plains


TX/Southern OK/LA/AR/MO
The threat will be fairly complicated. Ongoing activity will continue to threaten TX with large hail and damaging winds with the steep mid level lapse rates and dry air around 700mb contributing to DCAPE values approaching 1000j/kg. MUCAPE values downstream of the activity remains high ranging from 2000-4000j/kg. As stronger winds move in with the approach of the upper level low this activity will push eastward. Storms in TX will push eastward continueing the severe threat downstream into AR/LA/MS. This should allow some breaks in the clouds for areas in Central and Eastern TX before the next round of severe weather develops along the dry line and cold front. continue reading....



SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
Issue Date: 158 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008
Expiration: 300 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BANDERA COUNTY...
KINNEY COUNTY...
SOUTHERN REAL COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN UVALDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

* AT 156 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM LEAKEY TO 12 MILES WEST OF SPOFFORD...AND
MOVING EAST AT 28 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
TUFF BY 205 AM CDT...
MONTELL AND LEAKEY BY 215 AM CDT...
LOST MAPLES STATE PARK AND SPOFFORD BY 220 AM CDT...
ANACACHO AND RIO FRIO BY 235 AM CDT...
LAGUNA BY 240 AM CDT...
VANDERPOOL AND REAGAN WELLS BY 245 AM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2987 9919 2920 10000 2916 10075 2931 10067
2958 10024 2962 10002 2987 9983
TIME...MOT...LOC 0658Z 264DEG 24KT 2980 9977 2919 10059

$$

TORNADO WARNING
Issue Date: 151 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008
Expiration: 230 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXC271-323-140730-
/O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080514T0730Z/
KINNEY TX-MAVERICK TX-
150 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT FOR MAVERICK
AND SOUTHERN KINNEY COUNTIES...

AT 147 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF QUEMADO...MOVING EAST
AT 36 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DARLING AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF SPOFFORD BY 220 AM CDT...
8 MILES SOUTH OF ANACACHO BY 230 AM CDT...

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT FM HIGHWAYS 693 AND 1908.

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2926 10016 2888 10013 2890 10064 2896 10067
2899 10066 2900 10068 2907 10068 2913 10074
2915 10074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 267DEG 31KT 2906 10068

$$

TORNADO WATCH
Issue Date: 140 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008
Expiration: 900 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXC013-019-029-127-137-163-187-259-265-271-323-325-385-463-465-
493-507-141245-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.A.0317.080514T0640Z-080514T1400Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 317 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 17 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

ATASCOSA BANDERA BEXAR
DIMMIT EDWARDS FRIO
GUADALUPE KENDALL KERR
KINNEY MAVERICK MEDINA
REAL UVALDE VAL VERDE
WILSON ZAVALA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BANDERA...BOERNE...BRACKETTVILLE...
CARRIZO SPRINGS...CRYSTAL CITY...DEL RIO...EAGLE PASS...
FLORESVILLE...HONDO...KERRVILLE...LEAKEY...PEARSAL L...
PLEASANTON...ROCKSPRINGS...SAN ANTONIO...SEGUIN AND UVALDE.

[liveweatherman]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
Issue Date: 149 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008
Expiration: 230 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LUFKIN...
NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NACOGDOCHES...

* UNTIL 230 AM CDT

* AT 143 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HUDSON...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LUFKIN...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NACOGDOCHES AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WODEN BY 220 AM CDT...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MELROSE AND 8 MILES WEST OF MARTINSVILLE BY
230 AM CDT...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3106 9453 3142 9495 3150 9494 3153 9488
3155 9490 3156 9488 3161 9493 3176 9491
3183 9453 3146 9431 3141 9431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0649Z 225DEG 26KT 3143 9479

$$

TORNADO WATCH
Issue Date: 113 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008
Expiration: 1000 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

TORNADO WATCH 324 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC005-037-041-051-063-067-073-183-185-199-203-225-241-291-313-
315-339-343-347-351-365-373-401-403-405-407-419-423-449-455-457-
459-471-477-499-151500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0324.080515T0615Z-080515T1500Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE BRAZOS
BURLESON CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE GREGG GRIMES
HARDIN HARRISON HOUSTON
JASPER LIBERTY MADISON
MARION MONTGOMERY MORRIS
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON PANOLA
POLK RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY
SMITH TITUS TRINITY
TYLER UPSHUR WALKER
WASHINGTON WOOD
$$
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...LCH...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH
Issue Date: 434 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008
Expiration: 700 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-150945-
/O.CON.KSHV.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-080515T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z. OO/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE... JONESBORO...
MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX. ..COLUMBIA...
JENA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...
PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GIL MER...
JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...H ENDERSON...
CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...
HEMPHILL
433 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...
COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE RIVER...
MILLER...NEVADA...SEVIER AND UNION AR. IN LOUISIANA...
BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE ...DE SOTO...
GRANT...JACKSON...LA SALLE...LINCOLN...NATCHITOCHES...
OUACHITA...RED RIVER...SABINE LA...UNION LA...WEBSTER AND
WINN. IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MCCURTAIN. IN TEXAS...ANGELINA...
BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG. ..HARRISON...
MARION...MORRIS...NACOGDOCHES...PANOLA...RED RIVER...RUSK...
SABINE TX...SAN AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR
AND WOOD.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE AREA OVER THE 24 TO 36 HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN.. WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA...THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST TEXAS LAKES...INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. A BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON
THURSDAY.

* MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOAKING RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AND WE CAN EXPECT THAT ALL OF THE FOUR STATE AREA WILL
ACHIEVE SOIL SATURATION DURING THIS WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND
SHIFTS THE MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST DURING
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. AVOID HIGH WATER AREAS
OVER ROADS...BRIDGES...AND ESPECIALLY IN UNDERPASSES.

[liveweatherman]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 249 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2008
Expiration: 300 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-220800-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
248 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2008 /148 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS
UNSEASONALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES...SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WINDS NEAR 25 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 40 MPH IN
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS COMBINE TO RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE
PECOS RIVER INCLUDING SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS.

HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH THE HOT SPELL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT ON
THURSDAY FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AS STRONG WINDS SIMILAR TO
TODAY ARE EXPECTED.

[liveweatherman]

Watch out for the SAME areas as Thursday (High Tornadic Threat).. possible severe threat for today again..with high risk of tornadic activity on...NE Colorado into SW Nebraska, second on Kansas and third on Oklahoma by night time might be the most of all severe areas..

In depth analysis: Tornado Outbreak again for Friday in the same Area

Another high risk for possible outbreak..interesting areas again to go for a chase..be safe on the chase.. ;)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS EXTREME SERN
WY...EXTREME NERN CO...SRN NEB PANHANDLE...SWRN AND EXTREME
S-CENTRAL NEB...W-CENTRAL/NERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ERN WY TO
W-CENTRAL OK AND SERN NEB...

ANOTHER REGIONALIZED OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...IS FCST ACROSS PORTIONS
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY.

[liveweatherman]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/out...1otlk_1200.gif

Day 1 Convective Outlook
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
1259 Am Cdt Mon May 26 2008

Valid 261200z - 271200z

...there Is A Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms From The St Lawrence River
Valley/lower Great Lakes Region To The Srn Plains...

...synopsis...
Models Suggest Rex Block Over Wrn North America Should Re-develop
Wwd To Along The West Coast...with Upper Low Currently Centered Over
The Swrn U.s. Tracking Newd Into The Central Rockies And Adjacent
Parts Of Central/nrn Plains By Later Tonight. Ern Canada Trough Is
Expected To Amplify Swd Into The Great Lakes Region By 12z Tuesday.
Weakening Upper Trough...now Located Over Nd/srn Manitoba...is
Expected To Translate Ewd Ahead Of Amplifying Ern Canada Trough And
Should Reach Srn Quebec Later Today.

In The Lower Levels...surface Low Attendant To Nd Upper Trough Will
Track Ewd From The Upper Great Lakes Into Srn Quebec By 27/00z.
Trailing Cold Front...initially Extending From Ern Wi Swwd To Srn Ia
Into Central Ks...will Spread E/sewd Into The Oh Valley And New
England By 12z Tuesday. Swly Low Level Flow Developing Across The
Oh Valley Into The Nern States Will Allow For Moisture Return Ahead
Of The Cold Front...with Lower 60s Surface Dewpoints Expected To
Reach The Lower Great Lakes/upper Oh Valley By Early Afternoon.

Farther W...a Surface Low Will Track Slowly Esewd Across Swrn Ks
Into Nwrn Ok...with A Dry Line Extending Swd Through W Tx.

...lower Great Lakes Swwd To Oh/mid Ms Valleys..
Deep Layer Wswly Winds Are Expected To Strengthen By Afternoon
Across This Entire Region With Approach Of Nd Upper Trough And
Deepening Ern Canada Trough. Moisture Return Beneath Plume Of Steep
Mid Level Lapse Rates Extending Ewd From Mid Ms Valley Into Upper Oh
Valley/lower Great Lakes Region Will Result In Moderate Instability
Along And Ahead Of The Cold Front. Height Falls Attendant To Nrn
Stream Trough And Associated With A Few Mid Level Impulses And/or
Mcv/s Translating Newd From Ern Mo Through The Oh Valley Should Be
The Impetus For New Pre-frontal Tstm Development By Early-mid
Afternoon. Enhanced Deep Layer Shear With Each Of The Residual
Mcv/s Should Support Clusters Of Organized Convection With Storm
Mode Being Both Line Segments And Supercells. Additional Tstm
Development Will Be Likely Along The E/sewd Moving Cold Front As
This Boundary Encounters The Unstable Air Mass From The Lower Great
Lakes To Srn Lower Mi Into Srn Ia. 00z Gfs Suggests Two Zones Of
Enhanced Damaging Winds Possible This Afternoon And Evening...given
Stronger Lower-mid Level Winds. One Area Is Across Much Of
Ny...while The Second Area Is Expected To Be In The Oh Valley.

...ks Swd Into Ok/tx...
Srn Extent Of Cold Front...which Should Bisect Ks /generally E-w/...
S Expected To Remain Nearly Stationary Today...before Moving Swd
Toward The Ok Border Tonight. Sewd Motion Of This Front Tonight May
Be Enhanced By A Forward Propagating Mcs From Ks Into Parts Of
Ok/srn Mo/wrn-nwrn Ar.

Cloud Cover Attendant To Extensive Area Of Ongoing Convection...
Presently Extending From Wrn Mo To Nrn Ok...could Limit The Onset Of
Strong Surface Heating Today Across Ks/ok. This Combined With Short
Wave Ridging Across The Central/srn Plains Should Tend To Inhibit
Convective Development Until Late This Afternoon. Given The
Uncertainties In The Evolution And Timing Of New Tstm Development
Along The Surface Front In Ks And Swd Extending Dry Line...will
Maintain Enhance Severe Probabilities But Only Include Area In A
Slight Risk At This Time.

Once Tstms Develop...moderate Instability And Strong Effective Bulk
Shear Are Expected To Support Supercell Structures...with Initial
Storms Producing Large Hail And Isolated Tornadoes. 00z Gfs/4 Km
Wrf-nmm Suggest Upscale Growth Into An Mcs That Should Move Esewd
Into Parts Of Ok/mo And Ar Tonight Producing Damaging Winds And
Hail. This Scenario Appears Probable Given Likelihood For Srn
Plains Nocturnal Llj To Strengthen And Veer Overnight.

..peters/grams.. 05/26/2008

[liveweatherman]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NEW
ENGLAND SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH ERN CANADA AND THE NERN STATES.
OVER THE S-CNTRL U.S...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND IN THE WAKE OF MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO ERN CANADA IMPULSE WILL
PUSH EWD/SEWD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY
THIS EVENING. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMPLEX OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU OWING TO
ONGOING TSTMS AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...IN
GENERAL...THE SYNOPTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...PERHAPS EXTENDING FROM WRN/NRN TX ENEWD INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FORECAST IS COMPLEX DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY MAY WELL BE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISPLACED WELL TO THE S OF SYNOPTIC FRONT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT REMNANTS OF EVOLVING MCS OVER ERN KS/NERN OK MAY BE
IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER SRN MO/NRN
AR...FOCUSED ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ. LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AHEAD OF
SYNOPTIC FRONT OVER SERN KS...CNTRL/SRN MO INTO AR.
THEREFORE...NRN/NERN EXTENSION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA IS CONDITIONAL ON
AIR MASS RECOVERY LATER TODAY.

A MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF
2000-4000 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY. WHILE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE /PERHAPS EVEN
SUBSIDENT/...MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT AND RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RESIDE TO THE N
OF SYNOPTIC FRONT WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR BRIEF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WITH A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

...CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

PERSISTENT SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT
THE NEWD ADVECTION OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO
MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGELY WLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH
DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR RANGING FROM 40-50 KT OVER DOWNEAST ME TO AOB
30 KT NEAR AND S/SW OF THE DELMARVA. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF A CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE FRONT...PERHAPS
COMPOSED OF SHORTER SEGMENT BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AS ANY ONGOING STORMS MOVE EWD/SEWD OFFSHORE.

...NRN GREAT BASIN...

A RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TODAY INVOF
WEAK SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS REGION.
THESE LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER TODAY WITH SBCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. INCREASING INFLUENCE OF LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER
JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD INTO GREAT BASIN SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT DIURNAL TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD
CONTAIN SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE.

[liveweatherman]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 413 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2008
Expiration: 715 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-291215-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
409 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHWARD MOVING
WARM FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
WIND SHEAR ALOFT TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST
OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EVEN
THOUGH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE IN THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

[liveweatherman]

SPC AC 290548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL/ERN NEB AND
SMALL PART OF NCNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE AMPLIFIED UPR FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN INTO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN ON THURSDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR AS THE
IMPULSE OVER THE GRT BASIN TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS AND FLATTENS THE MEXICAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THE LWR
LVLS...A WAVY FRONT OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH
THE PLAINS. A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SWRN NEB SWD INTO FAR WRN KS/ERN
CO. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH ASSOCD WITH THE UPR TROUGH
WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE ERN DAKS AND THE NEB PNHDL BY EVENING WITH A
TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPING OVER SWRN NEB WHERE IT INTERSECTS WITH THE
DRYLINE.

[liveweatherman]

Today looks to be a bit calmer for tornadoes. Illinois and another area in Kansas will be the high light.
Where are the tornadoes going to be Today? read





TORNADO WATCH
Issue Date: 404 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
Expiration: 900 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

TORNADO WATCH 392 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC011-031-045-051-057-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-
139-163-177-179-183-301400-
/O.CON.KWNS.TO.A.0392.000000T0000Z-080530T1400Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON CEDAR CLINTON
DAVIS DES MOINES HENRY
IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK
LEE LINN LOUISA
MUSCATINE SCOTT VAN BUREN
WAPELLO WASHINGTON

[liveweatherman]

Special Weather Statements:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 438 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008
Expiration: 445 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-030945-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
433 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008 /333 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 418 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH 9 AM CDT. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS FORMING WITH SEVERE STORMS FOCUSED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS CONVECTION
WILL MOVE EAST BY MID MORNING THEN A BREAK IN STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH 4 PM CDT. AFTERWARDS SURFACE HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE WILL SEE A BREAK ON TUESDAY THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE JETSTREAM
DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS KANSAS. THE
MODELS SHOW SOME DISCONTINUITY IN THE TIMING OF MOVING THE SYSTEM
EAST WITH THE SEVERE THREAT BEYOND MIDWEEK STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL
BE REFINED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...