Big Changes coming

Steve · 10-06-2006, 03:47 PM

It looks like the shortwave moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest and Southwestern Canada will move eastward as amplification takes place in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This will allow the Canadian Vortex to sink southward. Then the system in the southwest kicks out and gets captured by the vortex. The result in a strong storm over the Great Lakes by day 7. This produces snow showers for the Upper Great Lakes and some big time cold temperatures.

luvwinterwx · 10-06-2006, 05:01 PM

you were going to use that four letter SNOW word !...

I do love winter wx.. but I'm NOT READY !

.. where are those mittens...?

Martin · 10-06-2006, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by luvwinterwx

I do love winter wx.. but I'm NOT READY !

Same goes here.. I need to finish painting my railings outside.

Steve · 10-07-2006, 08:05 AM

The GFS has to be too far south with their vortex. If it did reach into Iowa and Northern Missouri in 132 hours in would be an historic position for this time of the year. I would be more inclined to believe the ECMWF and CMC with its further north location in the Upper Great Lakes. Even with that, considering the low heights at 500 mb and 850 mb temperatures, this stystem may be historic as it is. Some wet snow on the west side of the system with howling winds near the low as well as strong thunderstorms in advance of its cold front. Looks like the main thing here is much colder air with all 3 long term models showing about -7 C at 850 mb. It's hard to go along with the LOT NWS forecast for Chicago of 50 degrees Thursday. My forecast to my clients is 42.

Steve · 10-07-2006, 01:37 PM

If the 144 hour GFS is to be believed, the central pressure would by 972 mb which translates to 28.71 inches. That would be well worse then the Edmond Fitzgerald storm in 1975 which was 28.95 inches. Hey this could be our first hurricane of the season in the U.S.

Martin · 10-07-2006, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve

If the 144 hour GFS is to be believed, the central pressure would by 972 mb which translates to 28.71 inches. That would be well worse then the Edmond Fitzgerald storm in 1975 which was 28.95 inches. Hey this could be our first hurricane of the season in the U.S.

Yeah, but how many times in the past have we seen the GFS over do things in the long range (5 to 8 days out) only to see it weaken the storm in the short range. Usually when it seems too good to be true..it never is.

I wonder how much tweaken has been done with the models from last winter to now.

Steve · 10-07-2006, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin

Yeah, but how many times in the past have we seen the GFS over do things in the long range (5 to 8 days out) only to see it weaken the storm in the short range. Usually when it seems too good to be true..it never is.

I wonder how much tweaken has been done with the models from last winter to now.

You are absolutely correct. But the thing that I notice is that there is great agreement not only between the different models themselves but also there is consistency from run to run within the individual model. Although the GFS may be overdoing it (and they probably are) it does look like a good bet for a significant and possibly even historic storm. Normally when models agree this far out, the chances are pretty good something big will happen.

Steve · 10-09-2006, 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve

If the 144 hour GFS is to be believed, the central pressure would by 972 mb which translates to 28.71 inches. That would be well worse then the Edmond Fitzgerald storm in 1975 which was 28.95 inches. Hey this could be our first hurricane of the season in the U.S.

Well after a couple more days and a few more runs, there is still a mega storm. The 00Z 09 OCT GFS has upped their central pressure to 976 mb at 84 and 90 hours (12Z Thurs and 00Z Fri) which is a still respectable 28.82 inches. By comparison, the 00Z NAM is 975 mb at 84 hours (12Z Thurs), the ECMWF at 976 mb at 96 hours (00Z Friday) with the GEM is 980 mbs for 96 hours. Of course, the storm is in Canada by these times, but I can find pressures as low as 976-989 mb or 29.20-29.40 inches in the U.S. just south of the border depending on the various model.

Steve · 10-10-2006, 06:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve

. Looks like the main thing here is much colder air with all 3 long term models showing about -7 C at 850 mb. It's hard to go along with the LOT NWS forecast for Chicago of 50 degrees Thursday. My forecast to my clients is 42.

WELL IT IS ABOUT TIME!

LAKE ILLINOIS-DUPAGE-COOK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKEGAN...CHICAGO
341 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

Martin · 10-10-2006, 01:42 PM

It'll be interesting to see how these mini-waves pan out.

10-06-2006, 03:47 PM	#1 (permalink)
Steve Professional Meteorologist Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Kenosha Wisconsin Posts: 126	Big Changes coming It looks like the shortwave moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest and Southwestern Canada will move eastward as amplification takes place in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This will allow the Canadian Vortex to sink southward. Then the system in the southwest kicks out and gets captured by the vortex. The result in a strong storm over the Great Lakes by day 7. This produces snow showers for the Upper Great Lakes and some big time cold temperatures. Last edited by Martin; 10-06-2006 at 05:19 PM.

10-06-2006, 05:01 PM	#2 (permalink)
luvwinterwx Junior Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 11	I had a feeling you were going to use that four letter SNOW word !... I do love winter wx.. but I'm NOT READY ! .. where are those mittens...?

10-07-2006, 08:05 AM	#4 (permalink)
Steve Professional Meteorologist Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Kenosha Wisconsin Posts: 126	The GFS has to be too far south with their vortex. If it did reach into Iowa and Northern Missouri in 132 hours in would be an historic position for this time of the year. I would be more inclined to believe the ECMWF and CMC with its further north location in the Upper Great Lakes. Even with that, considering the low heights at 500 mb and 850 mb temperatures, this stystem may be historic as it is. Some wet snow on the west side of the system with howling winds near the low as well as strong thunderstorms in advance of its cold front. Looks like the main thing here is much colder air with all 3 long term models showing about -7 C at 850 mb. It's hard to go along with the LOT NWS forecast for Chicago of 50 degrees Thursday. My forecast to my clients is 42. Last edited by Steve; 10-07-2006 at 09:04 AM.

10-10-2006, 01:42 PM	#10 (permalink)
Martin Administrator Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: North-East PA Age: 33 Posts: 138	It'll be interesting to see how these mini-waves pan out. Last edited by Martin; 10-13-2006 at 03:37 PM.

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10-07-2006, 01:37 PM	#5 (permalink)
Steve Professional Meteorologist Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Kenosha Wisconsin Posts: 126	If the 144 hour GFS is to be believed, the central pressure would by 972 mb which translates to 28.71 inches. That would be well worse then the Edmond Fitzgerald storm in 1975 which was 28.95 inches. Hey this could be our first hurricane of the season in the U.S.

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